Previewing the Bath and North East Somerset, and Cotswold by-elections of 16th January 2024
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"
Two by-elections on 16th January 2025:
Saltford
Bath and North East Somerset council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Alison Streatfeild-James.
Our two polls today are both defended by the Liberal Democrats and are both in the west of England. We'll start in the village of Saltford, which can be found in the Avon valley between Bath and Keynsham and lies on the old road from London to Bristol. This village is claimed, via the completely scientific method of a 2003 competition organised by Country Life magazine, to be the home of the UK's oldest continuously-occupied private house: the Saltford Manor House was built in or around 1160 and is listed at Grade II*. The A4 Bath-Bristol road still runs through the middle of Saltford, and proposals for a bus lane here are locally controversial - the Lib Dem and Conservative candidates in this by-election both live on the main road and would be affected by it, although the Lib Dem candidate gives an address just outside the boundary of this ward.
The Saltford ward also takes in three other small parishes: Compton Dando in the Chew valley to the south of Keynsham, and Corston and Newton St Loe further up the Avon valley. Which means that here can be found the main campus of Bath Spa University, in the Capability Brown-designed grounds of Newton Park. Bath Spa University is descended from the Bath School of Art, founded in 1852, and the Bath Teacher Training College which opened at Newton Park in 1946; the institutions merged in 1975, and university status was conferred in 2005. The university is still noted for teacher training. The presence of the Newton Park campus means that Saltford ward's population is about 25% student, and it is in the top 75 wards in England and Wales for residents educated to A-level but not (yet) further. The Bath Spa University campus has its own polling station, but students are notorious for generally not voting in local elections.
Many of the residents of Saltford ward who do vote tend to commute into Bath or Bristol. Saltford was a safely Conservative ward in this century until it swung hard to the Liberal Democrats in 2019, when the Lib Dems gained overall control of Bath and North East Somerset council. The Lib Dem slate was re-elected in 2023 with a topline figure of 40% against 24% for independent candidate Christopher Warren and 21% for the Conservative slate; however, the Lib Dem score here is inflated by a massive personal vote for councillor Duncan Hounsell, and his running-mate Alison Streatfeild-James squeaked into the second seat by just 33 votes over Warren.
Many of those Lib Dem voters will have voted tactically in last year's general election, when the North East Somerset and Hanham constituency was fought out between the outgoing Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg - a man who was surely born 300 years too late - and the Labour Mayor of the West of England Dan Norris. It was the second time they had gone head-to-head: Norris had represented Saltford in Parliament from 1997 to 2010 as part of the Wansdyke constituency, and Rees-Mogg had got into Parliament by defeating Norris in 2010. Mayor Norris got his revenge in 2024, unseating Rees-Mogg by 5,319 votes; he is currently seeing out the last months of his mayoral term before his successor is elected in May. Jacob Rees-Mogg, meanwhile, has had to turn to reality television to make ends meet after losing his Parliamentary salary.
Before the mayoral election we have a by-election to replace Alison Streatfeild-James as councillor for Saltford ward. She stepped down in December, during her second year in office, to take up a new job with the Financial Conduct Authority which is politically restricted.
Defending this seat for the Lib Dems is Hossein Pirooz, a lawyer who is described by the party as a "local dad". Independent Christopher Warren, a former chair of Saltford parish council who is campaigning to reopen Saltford's railway station, is back for another go after his near-miss in 2023, although his campaign may have been slightly derailed by having to deny responsibility for a controversial social media account which has rather a lot of selfies of him. Also returning from 2023 is the Conservative candidate Andrew Busby. Labour's Jane Giddins, the Greens' Luanne Thornton and Reform UK's Daniel Condick complete the ballot paper.
Parliamentary constituency: North East Somerset and Hanham
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bath
Postcode districts: BA2, BS31, BS39
Andrew Busby (C)
Daniel Condick (RUK)
Jane Giddins (Lab)
Hossein Pirooz (LD)
Luanne Thornton (Grn)
Christopher Warren (Ind)
May 2023 result LD 1058/676 Ind 643 C 548/372 Lab 211/145 Grn 177/135
May 2019 result LD 1124/944 C 775/724 Grn 241 Lab 139
Previous results in detail
Chesterton
Cotswold council, Gloucestershire; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Roly Hughes.
There was a young lady of Cirencester
Whose fiancé went down to virencester
By the Great Western line,
Which he swore was divine,
And he couldn't have been much explirencester.
We now travel north-east from Saltford up the Fosse Way, to arrive at the town of Cirencester - or "Ciceter", as it was once locally pronounced. This was a major Roman centre at the crossing-point of the Fosse Way and Akeman Street, but Cirencester didn't achieve lasting greatness and Swindon is now the main economic centre for this area. Nonetheless the town has grown over the years, and Chesterton - once a separate village to the south of Cirencester - has now merged into its urban area.
In the 2021 census 9.95% of Chesterton ward's adults were employed in administrative and support service activities, which was the highest figure for any ward in south-west England and in the top 40 for England and Wales as a whole. Chesterton has significant levels of social housing, and there are also some students here attending the nearby Royal Agricultural University.
Chesterton ward has been safely Liberal Democrat in Cotswold council elections throughout this century. The present ward boundaries date from 2015, and Roly Hughes had been the ward's councillor since then: in 2019 he polled 80% of the vote in a straight fight with the Conservatives as the Lib Dems gained overall control of Cotswold council, and at the most recent Cotswold election in 2023 Hughes enjoyed a 64-25 lead over the Tories. The ward is part of the Cirencester Park division of Gloucestershire county council, which is also in Lib Dem hands. And since 2024 the Liberal Democrats have the trifecta here: Cirencester is the largest town in the South Cotswolds constituency which was won in 2024 by the ocean rower and environmental campaigner Roz Savage.
Cotswold councillor Roly Hughes tendered his resignation last month for personal reasons, so we have a by-election. Defending for the Liberal Democrats is Cirencester town councillor Andrea Pellegram, who is a chartered town planner and runs a specialist planning consultancy. The Conservative candidate Ryan Dhindsa runs a business which provides protective footwear to the emergency services and the armed forces. Also standing are Andy Farmer for Labour and Jill Rixon for Reform UK.
Parliamentary constituency: South Cotswolds
Gloucestershire county council division: Cirencester Park
ONS Travel to Work Area: Swindon
Postcode district: GL7
Ryan Dhindsa (C)
Andy Farmer (Lab)
Andrea Pellegram (LD)
Jill Rixon (RUK)
May 2023 result LD 398 C 155 Grn 70
May 2019 result LD 358 C 91
May 2015 result LD 602 C 414 UKIP 169 Grn 127
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them - going back to 2016 - in the Andrew's Previews books, which are available to buy now (link) and would make an excellent Christmas present. You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale