Previewing the Broxtowe and Camden by-elections of 28th August 2025
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"
Two by-elections on 28th August 2025:
Nuthall East and Strelley
Broxtowe council, Nottinghamshire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Graham Hills.
We have two by-elections today to finish off what has, in terms of the weather, been a vintage summer. It has to be said that both of today's polls are rather confusing, although for different reasons. So do please pay attention at the back.
In the case of Nuthall East and Strelley, the confusion starts with the name which makes sense only in terms of parish boundaries which have become increasingly obsolete thanks to 20th-century development. The original village of Nuthall - which for the most part is not covered by this ward - lies a few miles to the north-west of Nottingham, to the north of the A610 road towards Eastwood and Matlock and to the west of the M1 motorway. Nuthall proper has effectively merged into a single urban area with Watnall to the north-west and Kimberley to the west.
Nuthall parish, however, also extends east of the M1 to take in a number of upmarket housing estates on the western edge of Nottingham which have never been incorporated into the city. There are effectively two centres to this "New Nuthall" area, the older Horsendale Estate off the main road into the city, and the later Assarts Farm Estate which lies immediately to the south of the Horsendale Estate. The former estate is close to the Nottingham tram terminus at Phoenix Park, which lies just outside the ward boundary.
The Assarts Farm estate is full of high-status detached homes from the 1980s and early 1990s, and Nuthall East and Strelley makes the top 60 wards in England and Wales for detached housing (76.0%). Last week I neglected to point out that the Beaver Lane Estate in Cranford, Hounslow had some of London's most bizarre street names, with Badger Close, Mink Court and Raccoon Way just some of the side streets lying off Chinchilla Drive. But Assarts Farm probably outdoes Cranford for weirdness, because its streets are all named after London Underground stations: here we find Willesden Green, Arnos Grove and Knightsbridge Drive, while the main road through the estate is - perhaps inevitably - Mornington Crescent. (I win!)
These two estates form the core of this ward, because Strelley has very little population: the Notice of Poll for this by-election has 398 electors registered in the Strelley polling district, out of 4,200 for the ward as a whole. The large Strelley housing estate is over the city boundary in Nottingham and therefore not relevant here; instead the population here lives in Strelley village and a small housing estate just over the city boundary from Bilborough College. All this was part of Strelley parish until 2023, when the parish was abolished. Strelley village is effectively a cul-de-sac and there is no way between Strelley and Nuthall which does not involve passing through Nottingham, so this isn't the most coherent of wards.
The polling station for Strelley is at Strelley Hall, an 18th-century country house on the site of a 12th-century castle which is now run as a centre for business, conferences and events. Compare and contrast with the polling station for the Mornington Crescent Estate, which is a temporary unit that has been placed in the car park of the Hickory's Smokehouse restaurant specially for this occasion. A third polling station in this ward, the Nuthall Temple Centre, recalls a former country house in Nuthall which was noted for its Palladian architecture: but the original Nuthall Temple was demolished in 1929, and its site now lies beneath an M1 slip road.
Nuthall East and Strelley ward was created for the 2003 Broxtowe election and was left unchanged by a boundary review in 2015. It has been in Conservative hands since 2011 when the ward's previous independent councillors retired, although the most recent election here in 2023 was fairly close with a 45-37 Conservative lead over Labour.
The local authority here is Broxtowe council, which covers a number of towns to the west of Nottingham including Beeston and Eastwood; the name comes from the former Broxtowe wapentake of Nottinghamshire, which was rather larger and also took in much of what are now Ashfield, Gedling and Mansfield districts. One consequence of this is that the Broxtowe parliamentary seat has seriously wandered around over the years: the present constituency of that name only has the town of Eastwood in common with the original Broxtowe constituency of 1918-55.
Last year's parliamentary boundary changes removed Nuthall East and Strelley from the Broxtowe constituency and transferred it into Nottingham North, which was renamed as Nottingham North and Kimberley to reflect its expansion outside the city boundary. In 2024 this seat easily re-elected its Labour MP Alex Norris, who is now a junior frontbencher at the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.
Reform UK ran second in Nottingham North and Kimberley last year, and in May they gained control of Nottinghamshire county council. The Nuthall and Kimberley county division, which covers the Nuthall East part of the ward, was gained by Reform UK from the Conservatives; the Faragists also won both seats in the large Stapleford and Broxtowe Central county division which includes Strelley, gaining one seat each from the Conservatives and Labour.
Broxtowe council itself was a Labour gain in the 2023 elections, with Labour winning 26 seats against 10 for the Conservatives, 5 for the Lib Dems and 3 independents. Going into that election the council had been hung, with Labour leading an anti-Conservative coalition. However, in January this year the ruling Labour group sensationally split, with the council leader Milan Radulovic and 17 other councillors walking out of the Labour party in protest at the Starmer government's policies. Radulovic's splinter group remain in minority control of Broxtowe council, and they have registered as a political party with the Electoral Commission as the "Broxtowe Alliance". This move came just after Broxtowe's pre-existing independent councillors registered the "Broxtowe Independent Group" party name, apparently in a deliberate attempt to stop the ex-Labour group from calling themselves that.
All this gives us a very confusing political outlook for this very confusing ward, which the Conservatives are defending in today's by-election after Graham Hills tendered his resignation in July. Hills was just over halfway through his first term of office, having joined Broxtowe council in 2023.
Defending Nuthall East and Strelley for the Conservatives is Judy Couch, who already represents most of the ward on Nuthall parish council and now has the chance to double up at borough level. The official Labour candidate is Domenica Lopinto, while the Broxtowe Alliance have nominated Graham Lambert; Lopinto points to her record of voluntary work in the area, while both Lambert and Couch are opposed to any local government reorganisation resulting in this area becoming part of Nottingham. Also on the ballot are the ward's regular Green candidate Rachel Gravett, independent candidate and former Nuthall parish councillor Tyrone Gall, and Reform UK's Neil Isted who was an unsuccessful candidate for the county council in May. Despite reports this week that the Nottinghamshire branch of Reform UK are boycotting the Local Democracy Reporting Service, their journalists have interviewed all the candidates - including Isted - and you can find out more here (link).
Parliamentary constituency: Nottingham North and Kimberley
Nottinghamshire county council division: Nuthall and Kimberley (part of Nuthall parish), Stapleford and Broxtowe Central (unparished area)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Nottingham
Postcode districts: NG6, NG8, NG16
Judy Couch (C)
Tyrone Gall (Ind)
Rachel Gravett (Grn)
Neil Isted (RUK)
Graham Lambert (Broxtowe Alliance)
Domenica Lopinto (Lab)
May 2023 result C 736/692 Lab 609/589 Grn 190 LD 97
May 2019 result C 727/660 Lab 505/495 Grn 239 Ind 167
May 2015 result C 1325/1265 Lab 910/644 UKIP 415/357 Grn 258
May 2011 result C 977/954 Lab 763/699
May 2007 result Ind 772/711 C 684/675
May 2003 result Ind 683/646 C 490/451 UKIP 240
Previous results in detail
West Hampstead
Camden council, London; caused by the resignation of Shiva Tiwari.
This week's reference to Mornington Crescent may have been in Nottinghamshire, but we're now going to travel down a diagonal - taking care to avoid being in knip, of course - to reach a genuine London Underground station. In fact, we have three stations here for the price of one thanks to the way the railways going north out of central London curve west to avoid the high ground of Hampstead Heath: within 200 metres of each other on West End Lane can be found West Hampstead Underground station on the Jubilee line, West Hampstead Overground station on the Mildmay line, and West Hampstead Wombling Free - sorry, West Hampstead Thameslink station which is served by local trains on the Midland main line.
To the north of the three stations we find the core of West Hampstead, including the library, the fire station and the Hampstead Synagogue. The ward also extends east to take in Hampstead cricket club, and its eastern boundary is the Finchley Road where we find two further stations: Finchley Road and Frognal on the Overground, and Finchley Road station on the Metropolitan and Jubilee lines. Next to the latter is the O2 indoor shopping and entertainment complex, which is now slated for redevelopment. (Its name predates the O2 mobile phone brand, which has no connection with it.)
In contrast to Nuthall East and Strelley's large majority of detached houses, West Hampstead is full of mansion blocks and 88.9% of its households are flats, which makes the top 75 wards in England and Wales. West Hampstead also makes the top 100 wards in England and Wales for those working in the professional, scientific or technical sector (18.3%), residents born in the EU-14 states (13.0%), Judaism (6.2%), residents educated to degree level (65.6%), the 30-44 age group (31.1%), the White Other ethnic group (26.8%), residents in higher managerial or professional roles (30.7%), and residents born in Oceania (1.7%, 89th). In other words, this is a high-status area of a cosmopolitan city.
West Hampstead ward was created in 2002; it has been in Labour hands since 2014, having previously voted Lib Dem. Two of its former councillors are notable enough for Wikipedia. Lib Dem councillor Keith Moffitt's service from 2002 to 2014 included his four years as leader of Camden council in 2006-10, while Labour's Phil Rosenberg, who topped the poll here in 2014 and served until 2018, is now the president of the Board of Deputies of British Jews. West Hampstead swung to the Lib Dems at the last Camden council elections in 2022, when the Labour slate won by the narrow margin of 45-39; Labour's third councillor, Shiva Tiwari, was re-elected for his second term just 38 votes ahead of the lead Lib Dem candidate Janet Grauberg.
In March 2025 Shiva Tiwari defected from Labour to the Conservatives, citing disillusionment with both the national Labour party and its Camden branch, which has a large majority on Camden council and - unlike its sister group in Broxtowe - has otherwise remained united. He became deputy leader of Camden council's Conservative group, but then resigned from the council in July following an angry incident in a local branch of Costcutter. After being told he didn't have the right ID to pick up a parcel, Tiwari had sworn at the shop's staff and threatened to use his status as a councillor to close the business down. His behaviour was sufficiently out of order that the police were called, but in the end no arrests were made.
Mind, Labour are currently not short of controversy with their own MP here. West Hampstead is part of the Hampstead and Highgate parliamentary seat represented by Tulip Siddiq, whose aunt Sheikh Hasina was ousted as prime minister of Bangladesh last year. The new régime in Bangladesh clearly has Siddiq in its sights as part of its investigation into how members of Sheikh Hasina’s government had been using and abusing their power, and in January Siddiq was forced to resign as a Treasury minister after being named by the Bangladeshi authorities in connection with multiple corruption investigations. She denies any wrongdoing.
Shiva Tiwari's defection from Labour means that the Conservatives, who finished third here in 2022 with 16.5%, are now looking to convert a defection gain into a by-election gain. Their candidate Ian Cohen, who fought this ward in 2022, is described as a longstanding pillar of the community and, intriguingly, as "dry cleaner to the stars". Labour will want their seat back and they have selected Francesca Reynolds, who is fighting her first election campaign. The Liberal Democrats' Janet Grauberg is back for another go after her near-miss here in 2022: Grauberg has previously served as a Camden councillor, representing Kilburn ward from 2006 to 2010 and rising to become the cabinet member for children's services, and she was appointed OBE in the 2025 New Year Honours for services to the community in North London and to education. Completing this ballot paper are representatives of two parties which didn't stand here in 2022, Matthew Hull for the Green Party and Thomas Sterling for Reform UK.
Parliamentary constituency: Hampstead and Highgate
London Assembly constituency: Barnet and Camden
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode districts: NW3, NW6
Ian Cohen (C)
Janet Grauberg (LD)
Matthew Hull (Grn)
Francesca Reynolds (Lab)
Thomas Sterling (RUK)
May 2022 result Lab 1332/1262/1202 LD 1164/964/963 C 494/449/407
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them - going back to 2016 - in the Andrew's Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale