Previewing the nine council by-elections of 7th November 2024

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"

Before we start another busy month of local by-elections, there is some housekeeping to do. First, we have an entry for Correction Corner relating to last week's Eccles by-election in Salford. Daniel Whitehouse, the Conservative candidate, contested Weaste and Seedley ward in May, not Worsley and Westwood Park ward as I wrote.

Hopefully there aren't any howlers like that in this week's column, because there won't be any timely corrections to it. Your columnist is in Spain at the moment to take part in the Quiz Olympiad on the Costa del Sol, and that means I have a quiz to play and old friends to meet tonight so there will be no overnight by-election coverage from me this week. This column was filed before I left. Depending how long it takes for me to get back from the Med, next week's Previews may also come out late.

For those readers who are still stuck in Blighty there are nine by-elections to look forward to on 7th November 2024, and it's a Scottish special to start the new month with five of today's nine polls taking place north of the Border. The Green Party are defending one seat, the Conservatives and Labour two each, and the Scottish National Party have four seats to defend including all three of today's by-elections to Aberdeenshire council...

Central Buchan;
Fraserburgh and District; and
Mearns

Aberdeenshire council, Scotland; caused respectively by the resignations of Scottish National Party councillors David Mair, Seamus Logan and Kevin Stelfox.

We'll start this week on the north coast of Aberdeenshire by travelling to Fraserburgh. This is a town whose economy has always been dominated by the sea: Fraserburgh is one of Scotland's largest fishing ports and it's one of the most important ports in Europe for shellfish. The importance of fishing to Fraserburgh's economy is shown by the fact that the town is home to Scotland's first and oldest mainland lighthouse: Kinnaird Head lighthouse was first lit in 1787 in a converted tower of the old Fraserburgh Castle. The original lighthouse was replaced by a new structure nearby in 1991, and the old building now houses the Museum of Scottish Lighthouses.

Immediately to the south of Fraserburgh we have the Central Buchan ward, which covers a series of scattered villages generally to the west of Peterhead. Perhaps the largest of these is Mintlaw, which was founded as a planned village in or around 1813 and is home to the Aberdeenshire Museums Service. Other villages in this ward include Strichen (which was once home to Alex Salmond, and was the venue for his funeral last week), New Pitsligo, Old Deer and New Deer. Some of these settlements, like Fraserburgh, are named after the old lord who owned and/or founded the village; but Deer has a religious history as the home of several monasteries, the first of which was founded by Columba in 719. No trace of that foundation remains except for the Book of Deer, an ancient manuscript copy of the Gospels with 12th-century marginalia that includes the oldest suriving writings in Scottish Gaelic; this book is now held by Cambridge University Library.

Fraserburgh is the town on the GB mainland which is most distant from the railway network: the nearest railhead is Inverurie, 35 miles away. It says something for how poor the transport links to this area are that the ONS recognises both Fraserburgh and the nearby town of Peterhead as the centres for separate Travel to Work Areas.

One recent re-entry to the rail network is the town of Laurencekirk, located roughly midway between Aberdeen and Dundee on the main road and railway line between them. Laurencekirk has completely eclipsed the old town of Kincardine, which disappeared from the map long ago but was once important enough to have a county named after it. Kincardineshire had the alternative name of "the Mearns", from a Gaelic word referring to a stewartry, and the modern Mearns ward takes in Laurencekirk, the coastal town of Inverbervie and other villages at the southern end of the old county.

Until Scottish local government was reorganised in 1975, Aberdeeenshire was a lot smaller than it is now: the modern council area of that name takes in not just Kincardineshire but also a large chunk of Banffshire. Aberdeenshire council has been under Conservative leadership since 2017, and the 2022 elections - held under proportional representation, as are all Scottish council elections - returned 26 Conservatives, 21 for the SNP, 14 Lib Dems and 9 independents. A coalition of the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and some of the independent councillors is running the show.

Both the Conservatives and the SNP have at various times struggled to get a good read on their support in Aberdeenshire, which has often resulted in those parties running too few candidates. In 2017 the Conservatives could have won an overall majority on the council with the votes they received, but they didn't have enough names on the ballot paper to win that many seats. Thanks to the transferable vote system, undernomination like that will normally result in a large surplus delivering an additional seat for a party which either the Conservatives or the SNP can work with.

We see this effect in the 2022 result for Fraserburgh and District ward, which gave 32% of the vote to the Conservatives' James Adams, 32% to independent Doreen Mair and just 20% to the SNP's Seamus Logan - in a ward where the SNP had polled 62% and won three seats out of four in 2007. If the Conservatives had stood two candidates, they would have won two seats very comfortably; instead, the Conservative surplus gave an unexpected seat to Ann Bell of the Liberal Democrats, who had started the count on just 4.8% in fifth place, behind Alba candidate Brian Topping on 5.8%. Topping had previously represented Fraserburgh on Aberdeenshire and predecessor councils for 38 years as an SNP councillor, before he defected to Alba; despite that long history, he performed very badly on transfers and he was eliminated in sixth place. If we rerun this count for a single vacancy, it goes to Doreen Mair who picks up strong transfers from the SNP to defeat the Conservatives 57-43.

In Mearns ward it was the SNP's turn to undernominate. First preferences here were 32% for the Conservatives who won two seats, 29% for the SNP's Kevin Stelfox who was elected on the first count, 11% for independent candidate Alison Evison who went on to be elected, and 9% for independent candidate Dave Stewart. If the SNP had stood two candidates here, then there are enough left-wing transfers going around to make the race between their second candidate and the Conservatives' second candidate too close to call. A single-seat count here would have elected the SNP's Stelfox extremely narrowly, with a two-party preferred score of 2,329 for the SNP and 2,326 for the Conservatives.

There was no such undernomination last time in Central Buchan ward, which had a messy first count: 33% for the Conservatives, 31% for the SNP, 13% for the Lib Dems and 11% for outgoing independent councillor Norman Smith. Smith was the last candidate to be eliminated, and his transfers put the lead Conservative Hannah Powell and the Lib Dems' Anne Simpson over the quota. The SNP balanced their two candidates very well and managed to win an extra seat by doing that: once all votes were redistributed, the SNP candidates David Mair and Geoff Crowson won the final two seats with 866 and 845 votes respectively, while the second Conservative Steve Owen finished just twelve votes behind on 833. Despite this, the Conservatives would have won Central Buchan on a two-party preferred basis with a 52-48 lead over the SNP.

These three wards are in three different Holyrood constituencies. Central Buchan is covered by Aberdeenshire East, which was once Alex Salmond's seat; it's now represented by SNP MSP Gillian Martin, who is currently in the Scottish cabinet as maternity-leave cover for the net zero and energy secretary Màiri McAllan. Fraserburgh and District is part of Karen Adam MSP's constituency of Banffshire and Buchan Coast, while Mairi Gougeon represents the Angus North and Mearns constituency which, as the name suggests, covers Mearns ward. All of these were SNP wins in 2021 with the Conservatives a close second.

At Westminster level Fraserburgh and District, together with the northern part of Central Buchan ward, are now covered by the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency. The predecessor seat of Banff and Buchan had been held since 2017 by Conservative MP David Duguid, for whom the 2024 general election came too soon: when Rishi Sunak fired the starting gun on the campaign, Duguid had been in hospital for some time recovering from a spinal infection. Against his wishes, Duguid then found himself deselected on medical grounds and replaced as the candidate by the Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, part of whose former Moray constituency had been transferred into this seat. The electorate were clearly not impressed by these shenanigans, and Ross lost his Westminster seat to SNP councillor Seamus Logan.

The southern part of Central Buchan ward is now contained in the Gordon and Buchan constituency represented by new Conservative MP Harriet Cross; the boundary changes helped her to unseat the SNP's Richard Thomson. Mearns ward also has a Conservative MP: Andrew Bowie was re-elected in July for a third term in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, a constituency name which the Scottish Boundary Commission must have chosen in the full knowledge of what obscene four-letter word it could be abbreviated to.

The Scottish National Party are defending all three of these by-elections. As stated, Seamus Logan of Fraserburgh and District ward is now an MP. Kevin Stelfox of Means ward has stood down on health grounds, and David Mair of Central Buchan ward has also tendered his resignation from the council.

None of these look like easy holds for the SNP, particularly in Fraserburgh and District where the party's defending candidate is Mike McDonald. The Conservatives' Iain Sutherland is looking to make a comeback to Aberdeenshire council: he was elected in 2017 as an independent candidate for the neighbouring Peterhead North and Rattray ward, before losing his seat as a Conservative in 2022. This time there is no independent candidate standing, so completing the ballot are Sandy Leslie for the Lib Dems, Dawn Smith for the Scottish Family Party (who gives a home address in faraway Aberdeen) and Conrad Ritchie for Reform UK.

In neighbouring Central Buchan ward the SNP defence is led by Sarah Wilken, who runs an accountancy firm in Mintlaw. The Conservative candidate is notable enough for Wikipedia: Peter Chapman was an MSP in the 2016-21 Holyrood term, sitting as a regional member for North East Scotland, and he was previously this ward's Conservative councillor from 2007 to 2012. The Lib Dems' Ian Bailey comes here hotfoot from the general election, where he was the party's Parliamentary candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East; Bailey, who works as a consultant in the food industry, contested Troup ward in 2022. Dean Ward is standing as an independent candidate. Also on the Central Buchan ballot are Phil Reynolds for the Scottish Family Party and Andrew Curwen for Reform UK.

Finally, the defending SNP candidate for Mearns ward is Hannah Scott. She is up against a challenge from the Conservatives' Tracey Smith, a co-founder of the "Save Our Mearns" group. There are no independent candidates this time, but Mearns voters also have on their ballot paper Isobel Knights of the Lib Dems, William Linegar of the Greens and Reform UK's Claudia Leith.

Central Buchan

Westminster constituency: Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (northern part), Gordon and Buchan (southern part)
Holyrood constituency: Aberdeenshire East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Aberdeen (part), Fraserburgh (part), Peterhead (part)
Postcode districts: AB41, AB42, AB43, AB53

Ian Bailey (LD)
Peter Chapman (C)
Andrew Curwen (RUK)
Phil Reynolds (Scottish Family Party)
Dean Ward (Ind)
Sarah Wilken (SNP)

May 2022 first preferences C 1550 SNP 1449 LD 607 Ind 527 Lab 213 Grn 135 Alba 111 Scottish Family Party 65
May 2017 first preferences C 1808 SNP 1674 Ind 863 LD 505
Previous results in detail

Fraserburgh and District

Westminster constituency: Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Holyrood constituency: Banffshire and Buchan Coast
ONS Travel to Work Area: Fraserburgh
Postcode district: AB43

Sandy Leslie (LD)
Mike McDonald (SNP)
Conrad Ritchie (RUK)
Dawn Smith (Scottish Family Party)
Iain Sutherland (C)

May 2022 first preferences C 1526 Ind 1509 SNP 941 Alba 274 LD 228 Ind 182 Scottish Family Party 43
May 2017 first preferences SNP 1522 C 1229 Ind 743 Ind 496 Ind 329 Lab 267 LD 262 Ind 252
Previous results in detail

Mearns

Westminster constituency: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Holyrood constituency: Angus North and Mearns
ONS Travel to Work Area: Aberdeen
Postcode districts: AB30, AB39, DD9, DD10

Isobel Knights (LD)
Claudia Leith (RUK)
William Linegar (Grn)
Hannah Scott (SNP)
Tracey Smith (C)

May 2022 first preferences C 1836 SNP 1677 Ind 623 Ind 513 LD 377 Lab 336 Grn 194 Alba 99 Ind 75 Scottish Family Party 52
May 2017 first preferences C 2495 SNP 1601 LD 599 Ind 472 Grn 233 Lab 220
Previous results in detail

Elgin City South

Moray council, Scotland; caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party councillor Graham Leadbitter.

Our fourth SNP defence of the week comes in the next-door council to Aberdeenshire. We now cross west to Elgin, the largest town in the Moray council area. This was once a cathedral city, but Elgin Cathedral now lies in ruins and the town's bid for city status as part of Elizabeth II's Platinum Jubilee celebrations failed. Elgin City FC, on the other hand, have made a good start to the current season and currently lie second in Scottish League Two.

We also see the past city status in the names of the Elgin City North and Elgin City South electoral wards. South ward includes the western part of the town centre, the football ground at Borough Briggs, the factory which makes the delicious Walkers shortbread, and the local hospital. Dr Gray's Hospital, in a distinctive domed Georgian building, was founded in 1819 from funds left for that purpose in the will of Alexander Gray. The eponymous Dr Gray had left his native Elgin to work as a surgeon for the East India Company.

Elgin City South ward returns three members of Moray council. At its first elections in 2007 it elected Graham Leadbitter for the SNP, John Divers for Labour and independent candidate Alastair Bisset. Bisset died shortly afterwards and the resulting by-election was gained by the SNP, but the Nationalists couldn't maintain two seats in the ward and the by-election winner lost his seat to the Conservatives in 2012. That has been the balance in the ward ever since. The last Moray council elections were in 2022, when the SNP's Leadbitter topped the poll on 36%, Labour's Divers polled 28% and the Conservative candidate Peter Bloomfield had 27%; all of them were above the 25% required for election on first preferences alone, so there was no need to go to transfers.

Overall the Moray council election of 2022 returned 11 Conservative councillors, 8 SNP, 3 Labour, 2 independents and 1 each for the Lib Dems and the Greens. The Lib Dem councillor, who had been rather unexpectedly elected unopposed in Buckie ward, resigned shortly afterwards and the SNP gained the resulting by-election. Initially the Conservatives and independent councillors formed a coalition, but it would appear that this has since fallen apart and the SNP are now in minority control of the council.

The Moray council area has nearly the same boundaries as the Moray constituency in the Scottish Parliament. This has been represented since a 2006 by-election by the SNP's Richard Lochhead, who is currently a junior minister in the Scottish Government holding the business portfolio. Lochhead was first elected to Holyrood at the first modern Scottish Parliament election in 1999, but he has not quite been ever-present: he had to resign his role as a regional MSP for North East Scotland in order to stand in the 2006 by-election.

The Westminster boundaries here are completely different, with Elgin included in the constituency of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey. This was narrowly won in July by SNP councillor Graham Leadbitter, who had led or co-led the SNP group on Moray council since 2017 and served as leader of the council from 2018 to 2022. Leadbitter, who was elected with a majority of 1,001 votes over the Conservatives, has now resigned his Moray council seat to concentrate on his Westminster duties.

If we re-run the 2022 count here for one seat, it goes to Labour who pick up Unionist transfers from the Conservatives and defeat the SNP in a head-to-head by 54-46. So the SNP candidate Laura Mitchell, who works for Richard Lochhead MSP, has an uphill struggle to hold this seat. Labour have selected Catriona McBain, who has just retired from a 29-year career lecturing at Moray College. Standing for the Conservatives is Elaine Kirby, a marathon runner who has worked in farming, finance and floristry. The only other candidate on the ballot is Neil Alexander of the Lib Dems.

Westminster constituency: Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Holyrood constituency: Moray
ONS Travel to Work Area: Elgin
Postcode district: IV30

Neil Alexander (LD)
Elaine Kirby (C)
Catriona McBain (Lab)
Laura Mitchell (SNP)

May 2022 first preferences SNP 1444 Lab 1142 C 1090 Ind 161 LD 124 Ind 101
May 2017 first preferences C 1460 SNP 1245 Lab 1009 Ind 347
Previous results in detail

Inverclyde West

Inverclyde council, Scotland; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Martin McCluskey.

To finish our tour of Scotland, it's time to finally tick a council off the to-do list. Andrew's Previews was first published on 7th September 2010 as a post on a political web forum, and in the fourteen years since then this column has covered almost every local government district in England, Wales and Scotland. Until today, there were only three councils which had still to be given the full by-election treatment. East Renfrewshire council must be doing something right because there hasn't been a single by-election there since 2001; Portsmouth city council's last standalone by-election was all the way back in 2008, although there have been vacancies since then filled as double elections under the thirds electoral system; and Inverclyde last had a council by-election in 2009. The Inverclyde parliamentary by-election in 2011, following the death of Labour MP David Cairns, was not previewed here.

This is a bit of a shame, because Inverclyde has a very unusual electoral distinction. Specifically, it was the last council in the UK to name its wards: until the introduction of proportional representation in 2007, Inverclyde council was elected from single-member wards which were numbered from 1 to 18. The introduction of ward names in 2007 resulted in electoral units which were only slightly more comprehensible: the council now has seven wards which all have compass-point names.

So we still need to look at the map to find that Inverclyde West ward covers the town of Gourock. This is a port and seaside town on the south bank of the Clyde, at the point where its estuary makes a sharp turn to the south. Gourock's railway terminus, providing regular connections to the larger town of Greenock and to Glasgow beyond, is on the pierhead: this gives easy connections with passenger ferries going west to Dunoon town centre and north to Kilcreggan. Those ferries are operated by Caledonian MacBrayne, which is wholly owned by the Scottish Government and whose head office is here in Gourock. Car ferries to Dunoon Hunter's Quay are operated by the privately-owned Western Ferries, and they depart from McInroy's Point at the western end of the town. Gourock was dealt an economic blow last year when the town's Amazon distribution centre closed, with 300 jobs being lost.

Inverclyde's position in a corner of the map has saved it from excessive Boundary Commission meddling over the years. The Holyrood seat of Greenock and Inverclyde is slightly smaller than the council area, and it is represented by SNP MSP Stuart McMillan who has sat for the seat since 2016 and was previously a regional MSP for the West of Scotland from 2007. McMillan is the convenor of Holyrood's delegated powers and law reform committee. The Westminster seat of Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West extends into the neighbouring Renfrewshire council area, and it was gained this year by Labour candidate Martin McCluskey; he defeated the SNP's Ronnie Cowan, who had sat for the predecessor Inverclyde seat from 2015 to 2024.

In the first-past-the-post era Inverclyde council was run by the Liberal Democrats, but with the introduction of PR in 2007 erstwhile Lib Dem tactical voters were able to vote for their genuine first choice party and have it win seats. The Liberal Democrats are now completely absent from the council after losing their last seat in 2022. Labour are the largest party, winning 9 seats in 2022 against 8 SNP councillors, 3 independents and 2 Conservatives; a Labour minority administration is in control, and a hold in this by-election would be helpful for that.

The new Labour MP Martin McCluskey has vacated his previous council seat in Inverclyde West ward, which he had represented since 2022. Previous local elections here had been dominated by independent candidate Ronald Ahlfeld, who polled over 40% of the vote in both 2012 and 2017. In 2007 Ahlfeld was elected alongside Labour councillor Terry Loughran and Lib Dem George White, who stood for re-election in 2012 for the continuing Liberal Party and lost his seat to the SNP's Christopher McEleny. Ronald Ahlfeld would have won two seats in 2012 if there had been two of him; in 2017 a second independent candidate stood, Lynne Quinn, and Ahlfeld's surplus transfers went overwhelmingly to Quinn who gained the ward's Labour seat.

Ronald Ahlfeld retired at the 2022 elections putting lots of votes up for grabs, but not many of them went to former SNP councillor Chris McEleny. He had been the leader of Invercylde's SNP group for several years up to 2020, but then he defected to Alba and became the party's general secretary, a post which he still holds. McEleny stood for re-election under his new colours in 2022, and finished in seventh place with just 3% of the vote; the ward's three seats went to independent Lynne Quinn on 30%, the new SNP candidate Sandra Reynolds on 27% and the new Labour candidate Martin McCluskey on 26% who took over the seat vacated by Ahlfeld. The Conservatives' 9% gave them the runner-up spot. All three councillors cleared the 25% required to win on first preferences alone, so no transfers were needed.

We can nonetheless examine the ballot papers from 2022 and rerun the count for a single seat, in which Labour start in third place but overtake the SNP on transfers from the Conservatives and minor parties; that sets up a final head-to-head between Labour and Lynne Quinn which Quinn wins 54-46. She won't be on the ballot for this by-election; if we redistribute her votes then Labour win a head-to-head against the SNP by 55-45.

So Labour should be favoured to hold this by-election. Their defending candidate is Ian Hellyer, a driving instructor and examiner who previously had a 30-year career in the police. Another former policeman on the ballot is the SNP's Robert Kirkpatrick, who runs a trout fishery. The Conservatives have reselected Ted Runciman, who was a very distant runner-up here in 2022 and was also their parliamentary candidate for Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West in July. Also on an all-male ballot are Christopher McEleny for Alba and John Burleigh for Reform UK.

Westminster constituency: Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West
Holyrood constituency: Greenock and Inverclyde
ONS Travel to Work Area: Greenock
Postcode district: PA19

John Burleigh (RUK)
Ian Hellyer (Lab)
Robert Kirkpatrick (SNP)
Christopher McEleny (Alba)
Ted Runciman (C)

May 2022 first preferences Ind 1440 SNP 1271 Lab 1247 C 453 LD 171 Alba 126 Ind 66
May 2017 first preferences Ind 2189 SNP 1163 Lab 584 C 510 Ind 199 LD 185 UKIP 20
Previous results in detail

Marsh Mill

Wyre council, Lancashire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Henry Jackson.

It says something for just how far the Conservatives have fallen that, out of the 44 by-elections on your columnist's list for November 2024, the Tories are defending only two. Both of those defences are taking place today in the same parliamentary constituency, Blackpool North and Fleetwood. For the Tories in the rest of this month, the only way is up - and on recent form they can expect a few gains to come their way.

We'll start with a ward in the town of Thornton-Cleveleys, which is essentially a northern extension of Blackpool with which it forms a continuous urban area. This is a merger of two towns: Cleveleys lies immediately north of Blackpool on the Fylde coastline, while Thornton is an older village to the east which once had year-round employment from the salt and chemical works at Burn Naze. Originally Thornton was an agricultural village, and some of the produce from the local fields ended up in the Marsh Mill: this is a large and well-preserved windmill in Thornton town centre, which has stood since 1794 and was still grinding corn into the 1920s. The windmill has given its name to the electoral ward covering the south and west of Thornton.

As stated, Marsh Mill ward is within the Blackpool North and Fleetwood constituency. This seat was reconstituted in this year's boundary changes, with the town of Fleetwood moving back here after being (rather dubiously) linked with Lancaster in 2010-24. Fleetwood has a decent Labour vote, and this boundary change was not good news for Conservative MP Paul Maynard who had represented Blackpool North and Cleveleys since 2010. Maynard had had a number of junior ministerial roles over the years, finishing up as minister for pensions - which is appropriate, given that the DWP has historically been a major employer in Blackpool. He had also got into trouble with the House of Commons authorities over his expense claims, and he went down to defeat in July.

Blackpool North and Fleetwood's new MP is Labour's Lorraine Beavers, who for the time being is still a Wyre councillor and a Lancashire county councillor as well. The Wyre local government district is named after the River Wyre and covers the towns of Fleetwood, Thornton-Cleveleys, Poulton-le-Fylde and a rural area to the east including Garstang. With the exception of Fleetwood, all of these are strongly Conservative areas in council elections: Wyre council is now one of just three councils in northern England with Conservative majorities, the other two being neighbouring Fylde and Lancashire county council. Marsh Mill ward is part of the Conservative majority: the 2023 council elections here saw the Conservatives defeat Labour 58-42. The ward is split between two Lancashire county divisions which are also safely Conservative.

However, only one of the three Conservative councillors elected here in 2023 - Paul Ellison - is still in the party. Ellison's ward colleague David Higgs defected to Reform UK in June, while Henry Jackson quit both the council and the Conservatives in September. So there's a bit of work to do here for the defending Conservative candidate Howard Ballard, who previously represented the neighbouring Bourne ward on Wyre council until he lost his seat to Labour last year. The Labour candidate is James Mason. This time we do not have a straight fight, with James Crawford being nominated for Reform UK and Caroline Montague for the Greens.

Parliamentary constituency: Blackpool North and Fleetwood
Lancashire county council division: Cleveleys South and Carleton (northern part), Thornton and Hambleton (southern part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Blackpool
Postcode district: FY5

Howard Ballard (C)
James Crawford (RUK)
James Mason (Lab)
Caroline Montague (Grn)

May 2023 result C 902/900/805 Lab 659/616/594
May 2019 result C 957/934/845 Lab 512/497/487 LD 233
May 2015 result C 1484/1474/1340 Lab 1000/968/902 UKIP 839 Grn 413
Previous results in detail

Bispham

Blackpool council, Lancashire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Tony Warne.

Staying within the Blackpool North and Fleetwood constituency, we now enter Blackpool proper for a walk along the prom. Bispham (pronounced Bispam, not Bisfam) is a lot older than Blackpool, and it was mentioned in the Domesday Book of 1086 - in the West Riding of Yorkshire chapter, because Lancashire had not been invented then. Blackpool itself is first mentioned as a placename in the register of Bispham parish church, from a 1602 baptismal record. Bispham with Norbreck was a separate urban district into the 20th century, before it was finally absorbed into Blackpool in 1918.

The present Bispham ward runs along the seafront, where it is served by the Blackpool Tramway stops at Cavendish Road, Bispham and Sandhurst Avenue. It marks the northern end of that festival of electric light known as the Illuminations, which are in full swing at the moment and will continue until 5th January. Just off the northern boundary of the ward is the Norbreck Castle hotel, which was the location of the 1988 conference where the Liberal Party and SDP voted to merge and doesn't look like it's had a penny spent on it since. At the time of writing the Norbreck Castle was ranked by Tripadvisor as 86th out of 93 hotels in Blackpool, which this column finds surprising: there are seven worse hotels here?

Blackpool council is run by Labour, who won a 28-14 majority over the Conservatives at the 2023 election;. However, last month Labour lost a by-election in the town's Marton ward to Reform UK, only the second time that Reform UK had ever won a principal council by-election. This time the Conservatives are defending, as Bispham ward is consistently in their column - but it was very close in 2023, with the Conservatives defeating Labour in a straight fight by 52-48. Conservative councillor Tony Warne, who was first elected in 2023, stepped down in September due to work commitments.

Defending this seat for the Conservatives is Lynda Watson, who is a retired teacher and lecturer. Labour have selected Joel McKevitt, who works in the NHS. As in Marsh Mill, we do not have a straight fight this time: also standing are William Banks for Reform UK, Kevan Benfold for the Lib Dems, independent candidate Rick Scott who is a former Conservative councillor in the town, and Ben Thomas for the Green Party.

Parliamentary constituency: Blackpool North and Fleetwood
ONS Travel to Work Area: Blackpool
Postcode districts: FY2, FY5

William Banks (RUK)
Kevan Benfold (LD)
Joel McKevitt (Lab)
Rick Scott (C)
Ben Thomas (Grn)
Lynda Watson (C)

May 2023 result C 671/666 Lab 621/616
Previous results in detail

Bishops Frome and Cradley

Herefordshire council; caused by the resignation of Green Party councillor Ellie Chowns.

It's not all that uncommon for political stars of the future to end up in Andrew's Previews at some point. Not that your columnist can always spot them. For example, in researching this piece I looked back at the 23rd November 2017 edition of this column which included a poll to Herefordshire council in Bishops Frome and Cradley ward. Conservative councillor Patricia Morgan had resigned her council seat to sail around the world with her husband, and a by-election was to take place. Clearly I didn't find out much about the candidates in the course of my research, because the candidate paragraph for that by-election simply read:

Defending for the Conservatives is Robert Carter, who lives in the ward in the village of Acton Beauchamp. He is opposed by three candidates who fought the North Herefordshire constituency in June [2017]'s general election: Ellie Chowns for the Green Party, Jeanie Falconer for the Liberal Democrats and Roger Page for Labour.

In retrospect this lack of attention was a little unfair on Ellie Chowns, who had previously contested the ward in 2015 and had lost a straight fight with the Conservatives by the rather wide margin of 69-31. By 2017 the Conservative administration on Herefordshire council had become seriously unpopular, and the Tories would go on to crash and burn here in the 2019 local elections; the 2017 by-election was an early harbinger of this discontent, and Chowns went on to win it easily with 45% of the vote against 29% for the Conservatives and 24% for the Lib Dems.

Green Party councillor Ellie Chowns was re-elected in May 2019 for a full term of office with a massive majority, polling 77% of the vote in a straight fight with the Conservatives. Three weeks later she was elected to the European Parliament as the first and only Green Party MEP for the West Midlands, serving until January 2020.

Following the 2019 elections the Green Party became the junior partners in an independent-led coalition running Herefordshire, but the county's independents then suffered losses in the 2023 elections which returned 21 Conservative councillors, 12 Lib Dems, 9 Greens, 9 independents, 2 seats for the localist party It's Our County and one Labour councillor. A Conservative minority administration was formed. Ellie Chowns, who led the Green Party council group, was re-elected comfortably in Bishops Frome and Cradley ward with a 69-27 lead over the Conservatives.

The Herefordshire Greens must have seen more promise in their local election performance than your columnist did, and they made the deeply rural North Herefordshire constituency one of their top parliamentary targets for 2024. Ellie Chowns had fought the seat in 2017 and 2019, on both occasions saving her deposit but finishing in fourth (and in 2019, last) place. Despite this, Chowns was elected to Parliament in July 2024 at her third attempt, pulling off a swing of 33% to defeat longstanding Conservative MP Sir Bill Wiggin.

So we now have, for the very first time, a by-election caused by a Green Party councillor resigning their seat to concentrate on being an MP. All five current or former Green Party MPs to date have been councillors at some point, but only Chowns was a sitting councillor at the time of her election: Caroline Lucas was an Oxfordshire county councillor until 1997, Adrian Ramsay's service on Norwich city council was from 2003 to 2011, Siân Berry resigned her Camden council seat last year and Carla Denyer had retired from Bristol city council at the 2024 local elections. This by-election is very much one of of a kind.

Bishops Frome and Cradley is just as rural as the North Herefordshire parliamentary seat as a whole. Despite the order of the names Cradley is the largest parish here, with 1,314 voters on the roll; the ward also takes in five other parishes located to the south of Bromyard and to the west of the Malvern Hills. The ward has an old age profile and high levels of detached housing and self-employment.

Defending this seat for the Greens is Rebecca Tully, who is a parish councillor in Stretton Grandison (which is not part of this ward) and works in teaching, training and community projects. Tully contested Three Crosses ward in the 2019 and 2023 Herefordshire elections, and before moving to the county she was the Greens' Parliamentary candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green in 2015. The Conservatives have reselected Mark Franklin, the current mayor of Bromyard, who finished as a rather distant runner-up here last time. Also standing are Nicki West for the Lib Dems, Sandy Grenar for Labour and Dave James for Reform UK.

Parliamentary constituency: North Herefordshire
ONS Travel to Work Area: Hereford
Postcode districts: HR7, HR8, WR6, WR13

Mark Franklin (C)
Sandy Grenar (Lab)
Dave James (RUK)
Rebecca Tully (Grn)
Nicki West (LD)

May 2023 result Grn 801 C 316 LD 45
May 2019 result Grn 974 C 265
November 2017 by-election Grn 471 C 299 LD 251 Lab 19
May 2015 result C 1331 Grn 610
Previous results in detail

Great Hollands

Bracknell Forest council, Berkshire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Naheed Ejaz.

We finish up for the week in what this column used to describe as England's most right-wing New Town. Bracknell was the only English New Town which did not elect a Labour MP in the Blair years, and it had been represented by Conservative MPs since at least 1885 and probably earlier than that. In 2019 the Conservatives won a majority of almost 20,000 votes in the Bracknell constituency despite their outgoing MP Phillip Lee falling out with the party over Brexit and ending up in the Lib Dems. Bracknell Forest council had been under Conservative control continuously since 1997, and Paul Bettison was one of the UK's longest-serving council leaders; the 2019 council elections returned 38 Conservative councillors against 3 Labour and 1 Lib Dem.

And then it all fell apart. In what turned out to be the first indication of the coming storm, Labour gained a seat in Old Bracknell ward from the Conservatives at a December 2021 by-election, very convincingly. For the 2023 council elections some manoeuvring between the opposition parties meant that most wards were a straight fight between the Conservatives and one other party, and in most cases the Conservative slate went down to defeat. This strategy of not contesting every ward meant that Labour polled only 30% of the vote across the borough to the Conservatives' 42%, but Labour won an overall majority on the council with 22 seats against 10 Conservatives, 7 Lib Dems and 2 Greens.

Labour followed up on this by gaining the Bracknell parliamentary seat in 2024 for the very first time, with Peter Swallow defeating the first-term Conservative MP James Sunderland by just 784 votes. Swallow was an academic before entering the Commons specialising in classics, and he has written or edited two books on the works of the Greek playwright Aristophanes. No word on whether he can tell undoubted Raphaels from Gerard Dows and Zoffanies.

Great Hollands ward is Bracknell town's south-west corner, and it consists of New Town development from the late 1960s - which had to be be brought forward due to expansion of the Sperry's gyroscope factory, which was at the time Bracknell's largest employer. As a result, Great Hollands' housing was ready some years before the neighbourhood shopping centre which was intended to serve it. The New Town genesis can be seen in the fact that Great Hollands South, the main predecessor to this ward, still has substantial levels of social housing.

Boundary changes for the 2023 local elections expanded this ward into Great Hollands North, which was previously the only reliable Labour ward in the district. The Labour group leader Mary Temperton sought re-election for the new Great Hollands ward and she was elected at the top of the Labour slate with a large personal vote. This boosted the Labour win here to 74-26 over the Conservatives. Temperton is now the leader of the council.

This by-election is to replace Labour councillor Naheed Ejaz, who stepped down in September. Ejaz had first been elected to the council in May 2023, and her short time on the council included an immediate appointment as mayor of the borough for 2023-24.

Defending this seat for Labour is Donna Pressland, who works as a carer. The Conservative candidate Sue Housego is retired. This time we will not have a straight fight, with former Conservative councillor Michael Gbadebo standing as an independent, Jason Reardon standing for the Heritage Party and Colin Wright for Reform UK.

Parliamentary constituency: Bracknell
ONS Travel to Work Area: Reading
Postcode districts: RG12, RG40

Michael Gbadebo (Ind)
Sue Housego (C)
Donna Pressland (Lab)
Jason Reardon (Heritage Party)
Colin Wright (RUK)

May 2023 result Lab 1666/1323/1301 C 588/545/470
Previous results in detail

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If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them - going back to 2016 - in the Andrew's Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).

Andrew Teale