Previewing the seven council by-elections of 31st October 2024
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"
Seven by-elections on 31st October 2024:
Bishops Waltham
Hampshire county council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Rob Humby.
As the witching hour of close of polls approaches, you might hear a knock on your door this evening. Probably it's trick-or-treaters. But in seven areas of the country you might answer the door tonight to someone who would rather like your vote. Yes, it's by-election Thursday and it's one of those weeks where all readers will get a treat, as today's selection of seven polls is quite an eclectic one.
We'll start in the Hampshire countryside by considering a selection of twelve parishes, most of which lie within the South Downs National Park. The largest town here is Bishop's Waltham (variously spelt with or without a possessive apostrophe), which is located at the point where the Winchester-Portsmouth road crosses the River Hamble.
The Bishop(s) of the name were the Bishops of Winchester, who bought the town from King Edward the Elder in 904 in exchange for Portchester. A later bishop, Henry of Blois, built a palace here in the twelfth century. Bishop Henry was a younger brother of King Stephen, and Bishops Waltham Palace frequently hosted royal guests: in 1522 the Treaty of Waltham was signed here, with Henry VIII entering an alliance with the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V against the French. The palace was largely destroyed during the Civil War, and its site was sold by the Ecclesiastical Commissioners in the late 19th century; its last private owner was the Second World War naval commander Admiral Cunningham, who had a house on the site.
Bishop's Waltham became a market town whose economy was based on its clay, with the town hosting a large brick and terracotta works. Terracotta from here was used in Buckingham Palace and the Natural History Museum in London.
The Bishops Waltham county division extends north into the South Downs up to the edges of Winchester and New Alresford. Much of this area featured in this column in 2018, when a by-election was held for Wincehster council's Upper Meon Valley ward. The boundaries include the parish of Tichborne, whose name recalls a notorious legal case regarding the heir to the Tichborne baronets who were lords of the manor. The Tichbornes' manor is not open to the public, but tourists can visit the National Trust gardens and stately home of Hinton Ampner or spend a day at the Marwell Zoo. A rather controversial recentish addition to this division is the M3 motorway cutting at Twyford Down.
Much of this area was recently within the short-lived parliamentary seat of Meon Valley, which was created in 2010 and then abolished by the 2024 boundary review which returned Bishops Waltham to the Winchester constituency. The outgoing Conservative MP for Meon Valley, Flick Drummond, lost the Conservative selection for the rock-solid Fareham and Waterlooville seat to the then Home Secretary Suella Braverman; Drummond ended up seeking and losing re-election in Winchester, which finished as a big Lib Dem gain in the 2024 general election. The new MP Danny Chambers was a veterinary surgeon before entering Parliament, and he is now the Lib Dems' spokesman for mental health.
The Liberal Democrats also control Winchester council, which is the local authority here. The ward and county division boundaries don't match up, but the Lib Dems will had a comfortable lead across the division here in the 2023 city council elections - reversing a Conservative lead in 2022. Two of the wards which make up this divison (Colden Common and Twyford, and Upper Meon Valley) didn't poll in May, so a similar comparison for 2024 is not possible.
However, the last Hampshire county council elections were held back in the good Conservative year of 2021, when Bishops Waltham was a safe Conservative division. Rob Humby, who was then deputy leader of the county council and had previously served as leader of Winchester council, won his third term of office with a 57-24 lead over the Lib Dems. Humby subsequently served for two years as leader of the county council from 2022 until he stepped down in May this year. He has not attended a council meeting since March due to caring responsibilities, and the council had granted him extended leave of absence which was due to expire in December.
Defending this by-election for the Conservatives is Neil Bolton, who sits on Winchester council for Upper Meon Valley ward (most of which is part of this division) and now has the chance to double up at county level. He runs an IT company working in the medical sector. Another Winchester councillor on the ballot is Jonathan Williams, who represents Bishop's Waltham ward (the ward name has an apostrophe, the county division doesn't); he works for a different healthcare software company. Alex Ellis of the Green Party and Labour's Steve Haines complete the ballot.
Parliamentary constituency: Winchester
Winchester wards: Alresford and Itchen Valley (part: Bishops Sutton parish), Bishop's Waltham, Colden Common and Twyford, Upper Meon Valley (part: Beauworth, Bramdean and Hinton Ampner, Cheriton, Kilmiston, Owslebury, Tichborne and Upham parishes)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Southampton
Postcode districts: SO21, SO24, SO32, SO50
Neil Bolton (C)
Alex Ellis (Grn)
Steve Haines (Lab)
Jonathan Williams (LD)
May 2021 result C 3474 LD 1442 Grn 809 Lab 384
May 2017 result C 3657 LD 1301 Grn 425 Lab 398
Previous results in detail
Sileby and Seagrave
Charnwood council, Leicestershire; caused by the resignation of Green Party councillor Faye Forde.
There are two polls today in the Midlands, one of which takes place in the large village of Sileby. This is an old industrial village around eight miles north of Leicester, located in the Soar valley and on the main railway line to Loughborough; Sileby has a railway station, opened in 1994, with hourly trains to Leicester and Nottingham. This has turned the village into something of a commuter area. One recent investment in the ward came from Leicester City FC, who opened a new training ground in 2020 at the nearby village of Seagrave on land previously occupied by a golf club.
The local authority here is Charnwood council, which administers the area from down the railway line in Loughborough. Sileby and Seagrave ward was created in 2023, and all the predecessor wards were previously held by Conservative councillors. The 2023 election, however, did not work out like that at all: the Green Party surged to a big win pretty much from nowhere, winning all three seats in Sileby and Seagrave ward with a 54-26 lead over the Conservatives. The Tories are still the largest party on Charnwood council, but they lost their majority last year and the Green Party group hold the balance of power: they have installed a minority Labour administration.
This Green surge didn't really repeat itself in this year's general election, although it's a bit difficult to tell because Leicestershire's constituency boundaries were drawn using the old Charnwood wards: that left this new ward split between two seats. Most of Sileby and Seagrave is now part of the Melton and Syston constituency, a new seat which was fairly easily won in July by the Conservatives' Edward Argar. Argar had previously been the MP for Charnwood since 2015 and held a number of junior ministerial roles; he was promoted to shadow Cabinet level in July as shadow justice secretary, after the previous justice secretary Alex Chalk lost his seat. A small corner of Sileby is still part of the Loughborough constituency, which was a Labour gain in July. The local county council division, Sileby and the Wolds, is also safely Conservative.
This by-election is to replace Green Party councillor Faye Forde, who resigned last month as she is moving away from the area. The defending Green candidate is Steve Bellamy. The Conservatives have selected Syston town councillor Sue Gerrard, who was on their slate here in last year's Charnwood election. Also standing are Kaisra Khan for Labour, Alistair Duffy for the Lib Dems and Pete Morris for Reform UK.
Parliamentary constituency: Melton and Syston (most), Loughborough (part previously in Barrow and Sileby West ward)
Leicestershire county council division: Sileby and the Wolds
ONS Travel to Work Area: Leicester
Postcode districts: LE7, LE12, LE14
Steve Bellamy (Grn)
Alistair Duffy (LD)
Sue Gerrard (C)
Kaisra Khan (Lab)
Pete Morris (RUK)
May 2023 Grn 1169/1132/1128 C 569/514/463 Lab 361/343/314 LD 76
Previous results in detail
Bilston North
Wolverhampton council, West Midlands; caused by the death of Labour councillor Susan Roberts.
We now travel west into the heart of the Black Country. Bilston was swallowed up long ago into the urban sprawl between Wolverhampton to the north-west, Walsall to the north-east and Dudley to the south. It's a typical Black Country town whose economy was traditionally based on a large steelworks and on coal-mining. Since it's Hallowe'en night, we should probably mention that the Bilston collieries were widely believed to be haunted, and the miners went so far as to bring in an exorcist. Bilston greatly expanded in population during the Industrial Revolution, and it was an independent borough of its own until it was incorporated into Wolverhampton in 1966.
Not all of Bilston North ward was historically Bilston: the ward includes Portobello, an area which was originally part of Willenhall before that urban district was split between Wolverhampton and Walsall. Boundary changes for the 2023 council elections brought Bilston town centre into the ward, along with the Midland Metro tram stops at Bilston Central and The Crescent. The old Bilston town hall, which celebrates its 150th anniversary this year, is within this ward.
The 2021 census was taken on the previous ward boundaries, and found a working-class economic profile. The old Bilston North was also in the top 50 wards in England and Wales for Sikhism (13.5%), and Sikhs made up the majority of the ward's Asian population.
Bilston may have been independent of Wolverhampton until 1966, but it was linked with that city for parliamentary purposes a long time before that. The 1918 redistribution divided the parliamentary borough of Wolverhampton into three constituencies called Bilston, East and West. The original Bilston constituency included Sedgley and Coseley, which were then rural villages, and Bilston returned Conservative MPs until 1945 with the exception of 1924. From 1922 to 1924 it was represented by Charles Howard-Bury, who had recently returned from leading the first expedition to Mount Everest. The 1935 general election and a wartime September 1944 by-election had both been very close between the Conservatives and Labour (Independent Labour in the by-election), and the seat then swung a long way to the left in the Attlee landslide. Bilston has had Labour MPs ever since.
The Bilston constituency was redrawn in 1974 with the new name of Wolverhampton South East, and since 2005 it has been represented by longstanding Labour Party fixer Pat McFadden. He ran the Labour campaign in the 2024 general election, with some success, and he entered Keir Starmer's first Cabinet as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
In Wolverhampton council elections Bilston North has voted Labour throughout this century with the exception of a Conservative win in 2008. The most recent poll here in May 2024 was a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour prevailing by 71-29.
This by-election is to replace Labour councillor Susan Roberts, who passed away in August at the age of 71. Roberts had been a Wolverhampton councillor since 2018, initially representing Oxley ward before transferring here in 2023 following boundary changes. Before joining the council she had spent ten years as chair of the board at Wolverhampton Homes.
There will not be a straight fight in this by-election with five candidates being nominated. The defending Labour candidate is Luke Guy. The Conservatives have selected Andrew Randle, who previously represented Wednesfield South ward from 2021 to 2023 and is trying to get back on the council. Also standing are Julian Donald for the Lib Dems, Hardev Singh for the Greens and Anita Stanley for the party which finished second in Wolverhampton South East in July's general election, Reform UK.
Parliamentary constituency: Wolverhampton South East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wolverhampton and Walsall
Postcode districts: WV1, WV13, WV14
Julian Donald (LD)
Luke Guy (Lab)
Andrew Randle (C)
Hardev Singh (Grn)
Anita Stanley (RUK)
May 2024 result Lab 1763 C 710
May 2023 result Lab 1449/1171/1152 C 572/521/424 Grn 274
Previous results in detail
Bramhall South and Woodford
Stockport council, Greater Manchester; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Ian Powney.
We now come to three polls in Greater Manchester, including our Liberal Democrat defence of the week which comes in that county's most southerly ward. Bramhall South and Woodford is also one of Greater Manchester's most middle-class wards. It makes the top 25 wards in England and Wales for owner-occupation, at 90.7% of households, and over half of its workforce is classed by the census as being in a managerial, administrative or professional occupation.
Bramhall itself has always been a desirable suburb, with fast (if not that frequent) links to Manchester city centre provided by local trains. It became a joint urban district with Hazel Grove in 1900, and wasn't incorporated into Stockport until 1974. A list of Bramhall's current and former residents includes a large number of Man U and Man City footballers and other entertainers.
Woodford's history is dominated by Woodford Aerodrome, which was opened in 1924 by Sir Alliott Vernon-Roe. A V Roe was the founder of the Avro aircraft manufacturers, and he was looking for a site with more space than Avro's original airfield in south Manchester. Woodford proved to be perfect for the purpose, and thousands of aeroplanes (including the WW2 Lancaster bomber) rolled off the production line here over the decades. The aerodrome ended up in the hands of BAE Systems, which closed the factory and sold the site in 2011. Some of the buildings have been preserved as the Avro Heritage Museum, but much of the old aerodrome site has been developed for housing in the last decade. Woodford is now full of people in their new homes objecting to the new homes.
Also in the last decade we have seen the completion of the "road to nowhere". This column was last in Bramhall South and Woodford ward in November 2014, at which point Bramhall was the eastern terminus of the A555. At the time I described that road as "the only part that was ever built of an ambitious road scheme to link Hazel Grove to Manchester Airport; at present the A555 does neither, making it very much a road to nowhere". Well, things have moved on in the last 10 years: the A555 now does go to both Hazel Grove and Manchester Airport (as long as it hasn't flooded again), and it incorporates a link road which functions as a bypass for the neighbouring Cheshire town of Poynton.
Ten years ago I also said that "Bramhall South's election results haven't seen much change over the last decade; it's a safe Tory ward with the Lib Dems in a strong second place but never quite polling well enough to win." That has also changed. The Lib Dems finally broke through in this ward in 2022, and following all-out elections to Stockport council in 2023 they now hold all three seats. Stockport no longer has a single Conservative councillor, although the Tories might well fancy their chances in this by-election: the last three ward elections here have all been close, and the Lib Dem lead in May's council elections was only 81 votes. In percentage terms that's 45-43. The ward is part of the Cheadle constituency, gained in July by Lib Dem MP Tom Morrison who is now the party's deputy chief whip.
This by-election is to replace Ian Powney, who stood down last month on health grounds after a local government career which took in an impressive number of councils over the decades. Powney was originally from Sutton Coldfield, and he served as a Liberal on the pre-reorganisation Sutton Coldfield borough council and then on West Midlands county council in the 1970s. He stood three times for Parliament, as the Liberal candidate for The Wrekin in February 1974 and for Birmingham Hall Green in October 1974, then in 1987 as the Liberal/SDP Alliance candidate for Brigg and Cleethorpes. In 2002 Powney turned up in London and was elected to Islington council from Barnsbury ward - one of the Labour candidates he beat in that election was Emily Thornberry. Powney resigned from Islington council within a year, and the following year he was elected to Basingstoke and Deane council in Hampshire as an independent candidate for Popley East ward, before rejoining the Lib Dems. He stood down from that council in 2008, and finally appears in Stockport as a Liberal Democrat candidate from 2021 onwards in Bramhall South and Woodford ward. Powney was first elected for the ward in 2022, and then re-elected at the top of the poll in 2023.
The Liberal Democrats are the largest party on Stockport council, which they run as a minority. They had no trouble defending two other Stockport by-elections earlier this month, but this is a more difficult proposition for their candidate Sandeep Singh Kashyap. He is a chemical engineer and local businessman. The Conservatives have reselected Peter Crossen, who narrowly lost here in May; he works in the banking industry. Also standing on an all-male ballot are Jake Thomas for Labour, Andrew Dearden for the Greens and John Kelly for Reform UK.
Parliamentary constituency: Cheadle
ONS Travel to Work Area: Manchester
Postcode districts: SK7, SK8, SK12
Peter Crossen (C)
Andrew Dearden (Grn)
Sandeep Singh Kashyap (LD)
John Kelly (RUK)
Jake Thomas (Lab)
May 2024 result LD 2185 C 2104 Lab 344 Grn 231
May 2023 result LD 2342/2238/2188 C 2025/1828/1789 Grn 437 Lab 254/230/207
Previous results in detail
Eccles
Salford council, Greater Manchester; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Sharmina August.
We now move west of Manchester to a place where it's all at. Your columnist sometimes ends up in Eccles on the way to and from work: when the M60 car park is having one of its moments, Monton Green or Lancaster Road can be the quickest way to get from A to B. This is despite the fact that Monton has become a very desirable suburb. It's certainly leafy enough, as one look at Monton Green at this time of year will tell you. There's even a lighthouse here, guiding shipping around a corner on the Bridgewater Canal.
One reason that the Manchester Evening News keeps putting out clickbait articles about Monton with the phrase "new Didsbury" somewhere in the title is the BBC. MediaCityUK, opened in 2011 in Salford Quays, led to 2,000 BBC jobs being transferred from London to the City of Salford. Those people and their families have got to live somewhere, and they discovered to their delight that the sort of money which buys you a shoebox in London would get you a large house in leafy Monton or Ellesmere Park just a tram ride away from the studios. Naturally, house prices in Eccles went through the roof and Monton is now full of trendy wine bars.
Eccles town centre, on the other hand, could do with a bit of care and attention. Salford council have some plans for it, having recently bought the Eccles shopping centre with a view to redevelopment. Demolition work is due to start next month. The old Eccles town hall, a stone's throw from the tram terminus and bus station, has been refurbished in recent years as an events venue.
In Salford council elections this area's demographic change has been to the benefit of the Labour Party, and Eccles has swung hard to the left in this century. Eccles actually voted Conservative in 2007 and 2008, but this seems a long time ago now. In May 2024 Labour councillor Sharmina August was re-elected for her third term of office with a 63-17 lead over the Conservatives. August, who was first elected in 2019 and re-elected in 2021, then submitted her resignation from the council in September saying that "working 100 hours a week in 2 jobs is not sustainable".
In between that we had the 2024 general election, in which Eccles ward was moved from the Salford and Eccles constituency to the Worsley and Eccles South constituency, which had the compass point dropped from its name. This is now represented by Labour MP and USDAW figure Michael Wheeler, who won a previous Eccles ward by-election in October 2011 and served the ward until 2021.
Defending this latest Eccles by-election for Labour is Lisa Muir, who is involved with the Monton Village Association and led a campaign to save Monton's Christmas lights a couple of years ago. The Conservatives have selected Daniel Whitehouse, who stood in May in the neighbouring Weaste and Seedley ward. Also on the ballot are Sara Laing for the Green Party, Sally Griffiths for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, and Ian McKinlay for the Liberal Democrats.
This Preview has been updated to correct the ward which Daniel Whitehouse contested in May 2024.
Parliamentary constituency: Worsley and Eccles
ONS Travel to Work Area: Manchester
Postcode districts: M6, M30
Sally Griffiths (TUSC)
Sara Laing (Grn)
Ian McKinlay (LD)
Lisa Muir (Lab)
Daniel Whitehouse (C)
May 2024 result Lab 2121 C 565 Grn 479 TUSC 198
May 2023 result Lab 2022 C 482 Grn 373 TUSC 93 LD 92
May 2022 result Lab 1964 C 731 Grn 265 LD 205 TUSC 99
May 2021 result Lab 2132/1834/1451 C 819/754/507 LD 379 Women's Equality Party 342 TUSC 173
Previous results in detail
North Middleton
Rochdale council, Greater Manchester; caused by the disqualification of Middleton Independents Party councillor Peter Allonby.
Our final Greater Manchester poll takes place to the north of the city. We've come to Middleton, a textile town which became prosperous in the Industrial Revolution but has a long history before that. History records that around 880 the remains of St Cuthbert were taken to "Middleton-juxta-Manchester" to stop them falling into Danish hands, and a Saxon church is thought to have been founded here. This was then replaced by a Norman church dedicated to St Leonard.
Cuthbert's remains now lie in Durham Cathedral, which is also the final resting place of one of Middleton's most famous sons. Thomas Langley was born here in 1363 and received his first education at the old Norman parish church. He rose through the ranks of the Catholic Church to become Bishop of Durham (having been blocked by various Popes from becoming Bishop of London and Archbishop of York), and he served for decades in the governments of Henry IV, Henry V and Henry VI. Langley twice held the position of Lord Chancellor, and he effectively functioned as England's first foreign secretary. He never forgot his Middleton roots and he had St Leonard's church rebuilt in his lifetime; Langley hasn't been forgotten in Middleton either, with the Cardinal Langley secondary school and the Langley council estate being named after him.
The present St Leonard's church, with its curious wooden belfry, dates from a 1524 expansion of Langley's structure by Sir Richard Assheton. He had won his knighthood eleven years earlier on the battlefield at Flodden, and his church includes the Flodden Window, which depicts and names sixteen archers from Middleton who fought at the battle. It's claimed to be the UK's oldest war memorial. The Asshetons were a major family in Lancashire, and there are several of them in the list of former Rectors of Middleton: also commemorated here is Sir Ralph Assheton, who commanded the Parliamentary army in Lancashire during the English Civil War. His monumental brass - one of a fine collection of brasses in St Leonard's church - is the only one in the UK to depict a Civil War officer in full armour.
Sir Ralph Assheton was an MP for Lancashire in the days when the county had 14 MPs in total - two knights of the shire and two burgesses each for Clitheroe, Lancaster, Liverpool, Newton, Preston and Wigan. It took the various Reform Acts to give representation to the industrial towns of Greater Manchester, and Lancashire was a particularly big winner from the Third Reform in 1885 which gave the county a total of 57 MPs. Middleton joined the Parliamentary map in that year, as the centre of a constituency which stretched north-east as far as Todmorden. That seat was broken up in 1918, and a new constituency of Middleton and Prestwich was created.
At that time the Liberal MP for Middleton (and Prestwich) was Sir Ryland Adkins, a barrister and judge who at the time held the position of Recorder of Nottingham. In 1920 Adkins was appointed as Recorder of Birmingham, which under the rules at the time was seen as accepting an office of profit under the Crown and thus caused a by-election. The Labour Party had intended to contest that by-election and they went so far as to select a candidate, but at the time there was an outbreak of smallpox in Middleton and local doctors advised against door-to-door canvassing and public meetings. Adkins was re-elected unopposed.
Almost as decisive was the 22nd May 1940 Middleton and Prestwich by-election, which followed the death of Conservative MP Sir Nairne Sandeman who was suddenly taken ill in the Palace of Westminster and died on the way to hospital. The wartime political truce meant that none of the main political parties stood against the Conservative candidate Ernest Gates, but he did face competition from Frederick Haslam of the British Union of Fascists. May 1940 was not a good time to be making the Fascist case to the electorate, with Norway having fallen and northern France and the Low Countries being overrun, and in the poll Gates crushed Haslam by 32,036 votes to 418. This Conservative score of 98.7% still stands as a record high for any candidate in a contested Parliamentary by-election. The very next day, Sir Oswald Mosley and most of the other BUF leadership were interned under Defence Regulation 18B.
The Middleton and Prestwich constituency increasingly became an uneasy marriage, as Prestwich was a much more middle-class town even before Middleton started expanding with Manchester overspill estates. In 1983 the link was broken and a new constituency of Heywood and Middleton was created, covering two towns which had both come part of the Metropolitan Borough of Rochdale. This seat was normally safe Labour, but it 2019 it was gained by Conservative MP Chris Clarkson.
Clarkson's small majority disappeared in boundary changes for the 2024 election, which split Middleton between two constituencies and redrew his seat as Heywood and Middleton North. He attempted to do the chicken run to Stratford-on-Avon which was a safe Conservative seat - until 2024, when Clarkson lost to the Lib Dems. Heywood and Middleton North had no problems electing Labour MP Elsie Blundell, whose majority of 6,082 may have been boosted a little by the fact that this was the only seat in England and Wales which had no Green Party candidate in July.
For the time being Councillor Elsie Blundell MP is part of the Labour majority not just in the Commons but also on Rochdale council, which currently has 44 Labour councillors against 9 Conservatives, 3 Lib Dems, 2 Gallowayites and 1 councillor for the Middleton Independents Party plus this vacancy. The Middleton Independents Party was founded in 2022 as one of the localist parties who have been doing well in recent years in the forgotten towns to the north of Manchester: like Radcliffe First in the neighbouring Bury borough, they have clearly taken their inspiration from the electoral success of a number of similar groups in the Bolton area over recent years.
Middleton is divided into four-and-a-half wards for Rochdale council elections, and North Middleton ward runs north-east from the edge of the town centre to the large Stakehill Industrial Estate - which is a major source of employment here. This had been a consistently Labour ward before the Middleton Independents came along and turned it into a close fight. You can't really get any closer than the 2022 election here, the first on the current boundaries, in which North Middleton's three seats split two to the Middleton Independents and one to Labour - but there was a tie for the third and final seat between two Middleton Independents candidates, Keely O'Mara and Lee Wolf, who both finished on 1,059 votes. Lots had to be drawn by the returning officer to separate them, and the lot fell on Wolf who was elected to the third seat. He lost that seat to Labour in 2023, and in May this year Labour held their other seat in the ward by a 48-44 margin over the Middleton Independents.
This by-election is to replace Middleton Independents councillor Peter Allonby, who was elected for a four-year term in 2022 but fell off the council in September under the six-month non-attendance rule - having previously come close to being disqualified for the same reason last December. He has had health problems in recent years and he is currently recovering from heart surgery.
The Middleton Independents Party need to hold this seat to keep group status on Rochdale council. Their defending candidate is Keely O'Mara, who was runner-up here in May and was a coin-toss away from being elected here two years ago. Labour have selected Donna Martin who is a long-serving former Rochdale council: she represented East Middleton ward from 2007 to 2022 and she was the council's cabinet member for children's services for six years. Also standing are Sajid Majid for the Conservatives and Iain Donaldson for the Lib Dems.
Before we move on to today's final by-election preview, I stated above that the present St Leonard's church in Middleton dates from 1524. A quick piece of arithmetic will reveal that it is 500 years old this year. As part of the celebrations, St Leonard's is hosting a concert this Saturday, 2nd November, by the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers (Lancashire) Band which your columnist has the privilege of playing clarinet in. Tickets are £10 on the door, the music starts at 19:30 on Saturday, and we would love to see you there.
Parliamentary constituency: Heywood and Middleton North (nearly all), Blackley and Middleton South (small part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Manchester
Postcode district: M24
Iain Donaldson (LD)
Sajid Majid (C)
Donna Martin (Lab)
Keely O'Mara (Middleton Ind)
May 2024 result Lab 1294 Middleton Ind 1163 C 177 LD 46
May 2023 result Lab 1236 Middleton Ind 1008 C 228
May 2022 result Middleton Ind 1140/1059/1059 Lab 1118/1029/886 C 381 Grn 282
Previous results in detail
Kirkby Stephen and Tebay
Westmorland and Furness council, Cumbria; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Phil Dew.
We finish for the week in some exceptionally beautiful countryside, which many people visit and even more pass through. And generations of travellers have had the chance to appreciate this landscape, because the main communication links between Carlisle and the south all pass through either Kirkby Stephen or Tebay.
In terms of passing traffic, Tebay is by far the busier of the two. The deep valley of the Lune Gorge is an obvious route to the north, and despite the steep gradients over Shap Summit which this resulted in the Lancaster and Carlisle railway - now the West Coast Main Line - was routed through the scenic Lune Gorge in the mid-1840s. The village of Tebay, located at the head of the gorge and at the bottom of the climb to Shap Summit, became a railway centre and a junction for trains going east towards Kirkby Stephen and Durham; there is no station here now, but several sidings remain for use by engineering trains. In 1970 the M6 motorway was driven through the gorge in a spectacular piece of civil engineering, which won an award for its sympathetic construction and has been voted as the UK's most beautiful stretch of motorway. The motorway and railway line pass the remains of a mediaeval motte and bailey castle at Tebay, while the earthworks of a Roman fort still lurk within the gorge itself at Low Borrowbridge.
The motorway and railway line continue north at Tebay, but the Lune valley turns east to Ravenstonedale before curving back south towards the source of the Lune in the Howgill hills. A climb to the east brings us to the head of the Eden Valley at Mallerstang, and to the high point of the Settle-Carlisle railway at Ais Gill Summit; the railway and river then run north towards the town of Kirkby Stephen. This is a tourist centre for the surrounding area, and it is one of two major towns on Wainwright's Coast to Coast Walk (the other being Richmond). Followers of Wainwright's footsteps will pass through countryside in the north of the ward, before tackling the ascent of Nine Standards Rigg to the east of the town.
This whole area was historically in the county of Westmorland. However, Nine Standards Rigg lies on the boundary with Yorkshire, and the Howgill hills to the south used to be partly within Yorkshire as well in the days when Sedbergh was part of the West Riding. When the Yorkshire Dales national park was created in 1954, it followed the county boundary of the time and thus did not cover any part of this ward; as a result, part of that national park area ended up in Cumbria two decades later.
In 2016 the Yorkshire Dales national park was extended north to cover the whole of the Howgill hills and the area around Kirkby Stephen, and most of this ward's acreage is now part of it. At the same time the Lake District national park, which had previously ended at the A6 over Shap Fell, was extended east to the western side of the Lune Gorge. The two national parks now almost meet other but not quite: the motorway and the railway line through the Lune Gorge are not part of either national park.
This is a deeply rural area with a rather old and rather white population. The main contributors to the local economy are tourism, quarrying and agriculture, and there are high levels of self-employment. Some of the local produce is sold to travellers at Tebay motorway service area, which is unusual in that it is locally-owned and uses only local produce in its kitchen and farm shop. You won't see any of the main national fast-food chains here.
Westmorland disappeared in the 1974 reorganisation, and Kirkby Stephen and Tebay were both placed within the very far-flung and very sparsely-populated Eden local government district. It's fair to say that local elections here were often not exciting. In 2003 only one candidate stood for the two available seats in Kirkby Stephen ward; the returning officer effectively had to reopen nominations, with a by-election for the other seat being held a month later. Ravenstonedale ward didn't see a single contested poll from its creation in 1973 until a by-election in February 2004.
The creation of Westmorland and Furness council last year means that local government in this area is now run from Kendal again. Kirkby Stephen and Tebay has two councillors, and it split its seats at the 2022 elections between Phil Dew of the Conservatives and John Murray of the Lib Dems: shares of the vote were 42% for the Conservatives, 34% for the Lib Dems and 24% for outgoing Eden independent councillor Sandy Lancaster. Dew had previously represented Kirkby Stephen on Cumbria county council since 2017 and on Eden council since 2019, while Murray was a fresh face. Murray is part of the Lib Dem majority on Westmorland and Furness council, while this year's parliamentary boundary changes mean that Kirkby Stephen and Tebay now have a Lib Dem MP: the area was added in July to former party leader Tim Farron's Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency.
Phil Dew is a Methodist minister, and he has left this corner of Cumbria to preach to a new congregation in Stockport. The Conservatives will hoping that his large personal vote can transfer over to their defending candidate Pat Bell, who previously sat on South Lakeland council for Kendal Rural ward on the far side of the hills. Should she be elected there will be all sorts of scope for amusing mixups, because there is already a high-profile Lib Dem councillor in the district called Patricia Bell. The Lib Dems have reselected Adrian Waite, a Kirkby Stephen town councillor who works as an accountant and management consultant; Waite was runner-up here in 2022, and earlier this year he was the Lib Dem candidate for Cumbria police and crime commissioner before contesting Barrow and Furness at the general election. This by-election is a straight fight between Bell and Waite.
Parliamentary constituency: Westmorland and Lonsdale
ONS Travel to Work Area: Penrith
Postcode districts: CA10, CA16, CA17, LA10
Pat Bell (C)
Adrian Waite (LD)
May 2022 result C 861/266 LD 697/557 Ind 496
Previous results in detail
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Andrew Teale