Previewing the three council by-elections of 22nd May 2025
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"
Three by-elections on 22nd May 2025:
Carshalton South and Clockhouse
Sutton council, London; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Amy Haldane.
This week Andrew's Previews will be having a Liberal Democrat special, as all three of the wards up for election today are to defend Lib Dem seats in London and the South East.
Our London poll today is on the southern edge of the capital's built-up area. Located on the northern slopes of the North Downs, Carshalton is one of the outer London commuter towns which boomed in population with the coming of the railways, and the opening of Carshalton Beeches railway station in 1906 led to large amounts of residential development on what had previously been lavender fields. But the housing doesn't go too far south of the station, and there is still a large commercial lavender farm in this ward at Mayfield which is open to the public in the summer months. This is close to the village of Little Woodcote, which was expanded in the 1920s by the building of homes fit for heroes but remains one of the few parts of Greater London completely surrounded by open space. At the southern end of the ward is Clockhouse, a housing estate which has no road connection to the rest of the ward: it is best understood as a part of Coulsdon which has spilled over the borough boundary.
Tourists walking from the railway station to the lavender field will pass through Oaks Park. This was laid out in the 1770s for the 12th Earl of Derby, who had two brief periods in government as the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (first in 1783 during the Fox-North Coalition, and later in 1806-07 as part of the Ministry of All the Talents) but is best remembered for his influence on horse-racing. At a dinner party at the Oaks estate in 1778 Derby and his guests came up with an idea for a horse race for 3-year-old fillies, which was first run the following year on a four-mile course which ran through Oaks Park. The inaugural 1779 winner of the Oaks, as this classic horse race came to be known, was a horse called Bridget owned by Lord Derby himself. It was seen as a success, and the following year a similar race for colts was run with Derby winning the naming rights to that race on the toss of a coin. The Oaks and the Derby are now run each June at Epsom racecourse, not far away from Oaks Park.
Modern electoral races in Carshalton South and Clockhouse are closely contested. The London Borough of Sutton is run at local and parliamentary level by the Liberal Democrats: Sutton council has had a majority for the Liberal Democrats or their predecessors since 1986, and the Carshalton and Wallington parliamentary seat has voted Lib Dem at every election since 1997 with the exception of a Conservative win in 2019. However, the Conservatives are not that far behind, and their vote is concentrated in Sutton borough's southern wards which look down upon the rest of the borough both physically and socially. Carshalton South and Clockhouse ward has a demographic profile rather unlike the capital as a whole, with high levels of owner-occupation and very high levels of second or third car ownership by Greater London standards.
The outcome of all this is that the last four elections to Carshalton South and Clockhouse ward have resulted in the ward splitting its three seats between two Conservative councillors and one Lib Dem, with the Conservatives having a small lead in votes (42-40) at the most recent election in 2022. Since 2014 the Liberal Democrat councillor here had been Amy Haldane, who had a baby last November and had found it difficult to attend council meetings after that: she tendered her resignation as a councillor in April, having sent apologies for all scheduled meetings so far this year. Haldane's resignation has left Sutton council with 28 Lib Dem councillors plus this vacancy against 21 Conservatives, 3 independents and 2 Labour, so if the Lib Dems lose this by-election their majority will fall to just one seat.
Defending this seat for the Liberal Democrats is Lisa Webster, a former teacher and accountant who runs a free toddler group at the Good Shepherd church in Carshalton Beeches - the largest of the three polling stations for this by-election, with 3,533 electors on the roll. The Conservative candidate Christopher da Cruz is on the committee of the Carshalton-on-the-Hill Residents Association. Also standing are Peter Friel for the Green Party, John Keys for Labour, Arlene Dearlove for Reform UK and Ashley Dickenson for the Christian Peoples Alliance.
This section has been corrected to reflect that the Carshalton and Wallington constituency was created in 1983, not 1997.
Parliamentary constituency: Carshalton and Wallington
London Assembly constituency: Croydon and Sutton
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode districts: CR5, CR8, SM5, SM6, SM7
Christopher da Cruz (C)
Arlene Dearlove (RUK)
Ashley Dickenson (CPA)
Peter Friel (Grn)
John Keys (Lab)
Lisa Webster (LD)
May 2022 result C 1698/1669/1544 LD 1617/1523/1317 Grn 387 Lab 329/286/279
Previous results in detail
Hedge End South
Eastleigh council, Hampshire; caused by the death of Liberal Democrat councillor Jane Welsh.
Our second by-election today is in another borough with a very long history of Liberal Democrat control. Indeed Keith House is one of the UK's longest-serving council leaders, having run Eastleigh council continuously since 1994.
House was successfully re-elected last year as one of the three councillors for Hedge End South ward. Lying immediately to the east of Southampton, Hedge End has grown very rapidly in population since the completion of the M27 motorway in the 1970s: it was only promoted to the status of a town in 1992, and it is still expanding. Most of the space in Hedge End South ward has now been developed for housing, and the ward has high levels of owner-occupation.
The explosive population growth in Hedge End and other Southampton suburbs has often caused problems for the Parliamentary boundary commission, and the boundaries of the Eastleigh and Winchester constituencies tend to change dramatically at each redistribution. The most recent boundary review in 2024 transferred Hedge End out of the Eastleigh seat into a new parliamentary constituency called Hamble Valley, which also takes in the western half of Fareham borough. Fareham borough has traditionally voted strongly for the Conservatives, and this boundary change was good news for the outgoing Conservative MP for Eastleigh Paul Holmes: he got the Conservative nomination for Hamble Valley, and he was re-elected fairly comfortably last year while his old seat fell to the Liberal Democrats.
Despite that, Britain Elects' Ben Walker reckons that Hedge End South ward would have been narrowly Lib Dem in the 2024 general election. There was a similarly narrow result in the 2021 Hampshire county elections, when the Lib Dems held the Hedge End and West End South county division by just 17 votes from the Conservatives, but Eastleigh council elections tell a different story. At that level of government Hedge End South is safely Lib Dem, and council leader Keith House was re-elected last year as already stated with a 53-30 lead over the Conservatives.
This by-election is to replace Lib Dem councillor Jane Welsh following her death in March. Welsh, who was born in Glasgow and grew up on Orkney before settling in Hedge End in the 1950s, was a veteran of local government who had first been elected to Hedge End town council all the way back in 1983: on Eastleigh council she represented Hedge End St John's (the main predecessor to this ward) from 1991 to 2016, before returning to the council in 2022 for Hedge End South ward. She was mayor of Eastleigh twice, in 1999-2000 and 2015-16. Away from the council Welsh spent her entire career with Barclays Bank, eventually retiring as the bank's longest-serving employee more than fifty years after she first joined the company as a 15-year-old shorthand typist in 1954.
Defending this seat for the Lib Dems is John Shepherd, who is the chair of Hedge End town council and works as a senior manager at a healthcare company. The Conservatives have selected Jerry Hall, a businessman who has been contesting local elections here for almost as long as the late Jane Welsh: Hall actually lost to Welsh when he first stood in the predecessor Hedge End St John's ward all the way back in 1995, and he previously represented that ward on Eastleigh council from 2000 to 2006 and again from 2015 to 2018. Also standing are Keith Day for Labour and the ward's first Reform UK candidate, Craig Palmer.
Parliamentary constituency: Hamble Valley
Hampshire county council division: Hedge End and West End South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Southampton
Postcode districts: SO19, SO30, SO31
Keith Day (Lab)
Jerry Hall (C)
Craig Palmer (RUK)
John Shepherd (LD)
May 2024 result LD 1436 C 801 Lab 295 Grn 172
May 2023 result LD 1651 C 778 Lab 231 Grn 175
May 2022 result LD 1921 C 854 Lab 245
May 2021 result LD 1779 C 1412 Lab 237
May 2019 result LD 1878 C 666 UKIP 261 Lab 127 Grn 117
May 2018 result LD 1933/1894/1863 C 1157/1016/1008 Lab 182/173/155 UKIP 133
Previous results in detail
Horsham Riverside
West Sussex county council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor John Milne.
Our final by-election of the week brings to an end, for now, a series in this column which has been ongoing since the general election: by-elections caused by newly-elected MPs resigning their council seats. When the current Labour government came to power ten months ago there were 143 council seats held by MPs, all of whom other than Sarah Dyke (who had won the Somerton and Frome by-election in the previous Parliament) were new faces to the Commons. Some MPs held seats on both county and district councils, so the number of MPs involved was slightly lower than that.
To date this column has covered 97 by-elections caused by resigning MPs; another 16 MPs (one of whom had resigned their seat slightly earlier) didn't seek re-election when their council terms ended in May. Twenty-eight MPs (fourteen Lib Dems, nine Labour, four Conservatives and independent Ayoub Khan) still hold a total of 29 council seats: the difference is down to Will Forster, who is Lib Dem MP for Woking as well as sitting on both Surrey county council and Woking council. We now come to by-election number 98 in the "resigning to concentrate on Westminster duties" category, which is to replace the West Sussex county council seat held by the new Lib Dem MP for Horsham, John Milne.
In case you're wondering if you've seen this column cover a by-election followed by John Milne MP's resignation before, then yes you have because Milne had previously held seats not just on West Sussex county council but also on Horsham council. He resigned his Horsham council seat last year, resulting in a by-election in Denne ward in November 2024 which the Liberal Democrats lost to the Conservatives. It appears that Milne had intended at that point to keep his county council seat until May 2025 when his term was due to expire, but then West Sussex county council's scheduled 2025 election was postponed pending local government reorganisation. Presumably Milne could not commit to another year of democratic duties at the county hall in Chichester, and he was not alone in that: there are another three West Sussex county council by-elections in the pipeline, with polling for those due to take place on 5th June.
John Milne had been elected in 2021 as the county councillor for Horsham Riverside division, which takes in the southern end of Horsham town including the town centre. This is based around a series of shopping streets known as the Carfax; south from the Carfax the Causeway runs to the parish church and the River Arun, while main roads radiate west to Guildford, east towards Brighton and north towards London. The division takes in the Highwood area west of the town centre and the New Town and Oakhill areas to the east.
As well as the usual services, Horsham town centre has been the traditional administrative base for Sun Alliance Insurance which is now part of the RSA Insurance Group. RSA's global headquarters are in the Walkie Talkie building in the City of London, but the company registered office of RSA Insurance Group was still in Horsham town centre until quite recently.
Milne's general election win last year followed on from a series of good Liberal Democrat performances in the area, which included winning overall control of Horsham council in 2023. Horsham Riverside is one of the better Lib Dem areas of the district anyway: the division has been in Lib Dem hands since 2005 (although the boundaries before 2017 were very different to those of today), and the Denne and Forest wards of Horsham council which it is based on were strongly Lib Dem in the 2019 and 2023 elections. John Milne did win Horsham Riverside rather more narrowly in 2021 (shares of the vote then were 46% for the Lib Dems, 35% for the Conservatives and 14% for Labour) and the Lib Dems have already lost the by-election for his former Horsham council seat in Denne ward as already stated, so it will be interesting to see what happens here this time.
Defending for the Lib Dems is Louise Potter, who was their previous parliamentary candidate for Horsham in 2019: she was at the time a Horsham councillor for Broadbridge Heath ward to the west of Horsham town, but she stood down from that council in 2023. The Conservatives have selected David Thompson, who last appeared on a ballot paper back in 2021 when he stood for the county council in Horsham Hurst division. Another David on the candidate list is Labour's David Hide, who is a regular candidate both for this county division and for the Forest ward of Horsham council, where he was runner-up in an October 2021 by-election. Also standing are Jen Nuin Smith for the Greens and Jack Nye for Reform UK. In 2021 the Peace Party finished in fourth and last place here, but it would appear that this time peace is not an option in Horsham Riverside.
That completes this week's Lib Dem special edition of Andrew's Previews. Next Thursday there will be another thematic week, as we cover four polls for independent-held seats. Stay tuned for those.
Parliamentary constituency: Horsham
Horsham council wards: Denne (most), Forest (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Crawley
Postcode districts: RH12, RH13
David Hide (Lab)
Jen Nuin Smith (Grn)
Jack Nye (RUK)
Louise Potter (LD)
David Thompson (C)
May 2021 result LD 1653 C 1244 Lab 489 Peace Party 208
May 2017 result LD 1320 C 1119 Lab 318 UKIP 176 Peace Party 97
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them - going back to 2016 - in the Andrew's Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale