Previewing the West Lothian and East Devon council by-elections of 13th March 2025

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"

Two by-elections on 13th March 2025:

Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh

West Lothian council, Scotland; caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party councillor Diane Calder.

Both of today's by-elections are in wards which this column has covered before. We'll start in Scotland by travelling to the west of Edinburgh and to the north of Linlithgow. Broxburn and Uphall are two halves of a single conurbation to the north of the M8 motorway, while Winchburgh is a separate settlement a few miles to the north of Broxburn.

All of these grew into towns in the nineteenth century thanks to the discovery of oil shale in the rocks of West Lothian. For a while this was a boom area, as shale oil was extracted and refined, until the industry died in the mid-twentieth century. Today the main reminder of the past industry is the extensive "bings", or spoil heaps, which dominate the landscape. Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh are all linked together by the Union Canal, while the main railway line from Edinburgh to Glasgow passes under Winchburgh in a tunnel.

West Lothian's ward boundaries haven't changed since Scottish councils went over to PR in 2007, so we can compare results here over a long period of time. The inaugural election here in 2007 returned two Labour councillors, one from the SNP and one from a local pressure group, Action to Save St John's Hospital (the main general hospital in Livingston). The SNP gained the hospital group's seat in 2012, then Labour lost their second seat to the Conservatives in 2017.

In the May 2022 local elections the first preferences split 42% to the SNP, 30% to Labour and 18% to the Conservatives, with the seat count remaining at 2-1-1. The ward's Labour councillor Ann Davidson died shortly afterwards, and Labour did well to hold the resulting by-election in December 2022 (Andrew's Previews 2022, page 552): Labour's first preference lead over the SNP was 40-35, rising to 55-45 in the runoff.

This Labour-SNP split is a fair reflection of recent results here in the two Parliaments. For Holyrood purposes Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh ward is part of the Linlithgow constituency, which has been represented since 2011 by the SNP's Fiona Hyslop: she has been ever-present in the Scottish Parliament since its restoration in 1999 (originally being elected as a regional MSP for the Lothians) and she is currently in the Scottish Cabinet with the transport portfolio. At Westminster this ward is split: Winchburgh is part of the Bathgate and Linlithgow constituency represented by Kirsteen Sullivan, while Broxburn and Uphall are covered by Gregor Poynton's Livingston seat. Both Sullivan and Poynton are new Labour MPs who gained their seats from the SNP last year.

The 2022 elections to West Lothian council returned 15 SNP councillors, 12 Labour, 4 Conservatives, 1 independent and 1 Lib Dem. The independent councillor died last year and Labour won the resulting by-election in Armadale and Blackridge ward (Andrew's Previews 2024, forthcoming). Although the SNP are the largest party, there is a Unionist majority on the council and Labour have a minority administration.

This by-election is being defended by the Scottish National Party following the retirement of Diane Calder, who was first elected here in 2012 and had topped the poll in all three ordinary elections she contested. Defending Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh ward for the SNP is Mike Carlin, who works as an Edinburgh tour guide and is described as an independence campaigner and local community activist. The Labour candidate is notable enough for Wikipedia: psychiatric nurse June Andrews is a former professor of dementia studies at Stirling University who has written a number of books on that subject, and she was appointed OBE in the 2016 Birthday Honours for services to people with dementia. Also standing are Marnie Taylor for the Conservatives, Oliver Ferrario for the Lib Dems, Chris Cotter for the Greens, former long-serving SNP West Lothian councillor Frank Anderson for Alba and David McLennan for Reform UK.

Westminster constituency: Livingston (Broxburn and Uphall), Bathgate and Linlithgow (Winchburgh)
Holyrood constituency: Linlithgow
ONS Travel to Work Area: Livingston
Postcode districts: EH29, EH52

Frank Anderson (Alba)
June Andrews (Lab)
Mike Carlin (SNP)
Chris Cotter (Grn)
Oliver Ferrario (LD)
David McLennan (RUK)
Marnie Taylor (C)

December 2022 by-election first preferences Lab 1783 SNP 1576 C 347 Ind 275 LD 167 Ind 125 Grn 122 Alba 81; final Lab 2191 SNP 1792
May 2022 first preferences SNP 2870 Lab 2029 C 1215 Grn 298 LD 255 Alba 95 Scottish Family Party 91
May 2017 first preferences SNP 2903 C 1897 Lab 1637 Grn 256 LD 217 TUSC 57
May 2012 first preferences Lab 2349 SNP 2168 Action to Save St John's Hospital 766 C 316
May 2007 first preferences Lab 2807 SNP 2549 Action to Save St John's Hospital 1047 C 559 LD 431
Previous results in detail

Exe Valley

East Devon council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Jamie Kemp.

Our other ward up for election today is in the West Country. The Exe Valley ward of East Devon consists of seven parishes lying immediately to the north of Exeter. The largest of these, with 565 electors on the roll, is Stoke Canon which lies between the River Exe to the west and the River Culm to the east. The Great Western railway line runs through Stoke Canon, and stray cinders from a steam locomotive were responsible for a devastating fire here in 1847. The Exe and the Culm are in wide valleys here and they have changed their meanders over the years, but the parish boundaries haven't been updated to match resulting in a number of places where the ward includes territory which is now cut off on the far side of the Exe.

The Exe Valley ward is rather out on a limb in a corner of East Devon district, which is based in Honiton and whose main focus is the towns and countryside to the east of Exeter. East Devon council was run by the Conservatives until 2019, when they lost their majority; a coalition of Lib Dem, independent and Green councillors has been in control since then.

This makes Exe Valley ward something of a bellwether. It was held by the Conservatives until 2015, then gained by the Lib Dems (on revised boundaries, with the parish of Poltimore added) in the 2019 election. The Lib Dem councillor Fabian King resigned in 2021 to concentrate on his business interests, and new Lib Dem Jamie Kemp was elected in a close three-way result at the resulting by-election (Andrew's Previews 2021, page 388): vote shares were 37% for the Lib Dems, 32% for the Conservatives and 31% for Labour. In 2023 Labour withdrew from the fray and Kemp was re-elected by the much more lopsided margin of 70-30 against Conservative opposition.

Exe Valley ward is part of the Broadclyst division of Devon county council, which split its two seats in 2021 between the Green Party and the Conservatives. Last year's Westminster boundary changes united the ward within the constituency of Exmouth and Exeter East, which is the main successor to the former East Devon constituency. Despite this, the outgoing East Devon Conservative MP Simon Jupp decided to seek re-election in Honiton and Sidmouth, which he lost to the Liberal Democrats; while Exmouth and Exeter East remained in the Conservative column, although David Reed won the seat with a low vote share of just 29%. Reed is one of the rather small 2024 intake of new Conservative MPs. He originally came to this corner of the world thanks to his service in the Royal Marines, who have a large base at Lympstone near Exmouth.

Lib Dem councillor Jamie Kemp, who was a contestant on the 2016 series of The Great British Sewing Bee before he joined East Devon council in the 2021 by-election, is now standing down after four years in office. The party's defending candidate is Fabian King, the former councillor for this ward who was replaced by Kemp in 2021. The Conservatives have selected Patsy Hayman, who contested Budleigh and Raleigh ward in the 2019 and 2023 East Devon elections and is a former vice-chair of East Budleigh parish council. Also standing are Julie Bennett for Labour and Nat Vanstone for Reform UK.

Parliamentary constituency: Exmouth and Exeter East
Devon county council division: Broadclyst
ONS Travel to Work Area: Exeter
Postcode districts: EX4, EX5

Julie Bennett (Lab)
Patsy Hayman (C)
Fabian King (LD)
Nat Vanstone (RUK)

May 2023 result LD 475 C 199
September 2021 by-election LD 190 C 164 Lab 161
May 2019 result LD 378 C 289
Previous results in detail

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If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them - going back to 2016 - in the Andrew's Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).

Andrew Teale