Reviewing the English local elections of 1st May 2025

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"

It's the weekend after the local elections, which means that it's time to write my traditional debrief piece trying to summarise the results and seeing how my previews from before the election fared.

Andrew's Previews started in the second half of 2010, so this is the first set of local elections this column has covered under a Labour government. The political context now is completely different to that of 12 months ago, when Rishi Sunak was the Conservative party leader and Prime Minister trying to digest a terrible set of local election results for the Conservatives; while Sir Keir Starmer's Labour and any other left-wing group that looked plausible were riding a high in popularity. The Starmer government has now come in with a rather different set of priorities to the previous boss, but its first ten months have disappointed those who were looking for a more radical solution to the country's problems.

In my Preview for this set of local elections, I noted that the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats were all down in the polling compared with the projected national shares from May 2021, when these seats were last fought; while Reform UK - who had been mostly absent from the May 2021 elections and polled generally derisory shares in the few areas where they did stand, and whose entire set of previous local election wins could be enumerated on a single set of fingers and toes - were standing in first place in the opinion polls with around 25%. This year's projected national share came in at 30% for Reform UK, 20% for Labour, 17% for the Liberal Democrats, 15% for the Conservatives and 11% for the Green Party, indicating that the Conservatives and Labour have fallen further while Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have outperformed their polling. In fact, Reform UK were now significantly in the lead in many English counties and therefore benefited from the bonus that England's first-past-the-post electoral system normally delivers to leading parties. Of the 24 councils up for election this year, ten now have Reform UK majorities, while the Conservatives lost every council they were defending.

The BBC's winning totals for councillors stand at 677 for Reform UK (from nothing), 370 for the Liberal Democrats (a net gain of 163), 319 for the Conservatives (a net loss of 674), 98 for Labour (a net loss of 187), 89 independents (a net loss of 20) and 79 Greens (a net gain of 44). The seat changes here are from 2021 and make allowances for ward boundary changes. This column has also tallied the 95 seats up in by-elections, which split 32 to the Liberal Democrats (a net gain of 1), 28 to Reform UK (from nowhere), 12 to the Conservatives (breaking even), 11 to Labour (a net loss of 30), 7 to the Greens (a net gain of 3) and 5 to independents or localist parties (a net loss of 2). This second set of seat totals is not intended to be representative, but the by-election seat changes (which are from local elections in 2022, 2023 or 2024) are instructive: they suggest that the Conservative slide in local government may now have hit the bottom, while if Labour can't get their act together then they will be in deep trouble in the May 2026 local elections, when a large number of their seats will be up for election.

We'll now look at what those general trends mean for particular areas. I haven't had time to prepare maps of my own yet, but the Britain Elects/New Statesman interactive map is taking shape (link) and I would recommend you refer to that.

North East

We started this year with the one council which counted all its votes overnight, Northumberland. This remains a hung council with the Conservatives as the largest party, but they have fallen away quite a lot: the new composition has 26 Conservatives, 23 from Reform UK who did particularly well in Blyth and Ashington, just eight Labour councillors, seven independents, three Lib Dems and two Greens. One of the defeated Conservative candidates here was the former MP and Cabinet minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan, who made no headway in the safe-Labour ward of Druridge Bay. It's decision time for the county's current Conservative leadership: do they plough on with the minority administration that has run Northumberland since 2017, or do they invite Reform UK into a coalition?

No such considerations apply in County Durham, where Reform UK came from nowhere to win an overall majority: they now have 65 seats against 14 for the Lib Dems, 12 independents, just four Labour councillors in a county which the party ran for a century up to 2021, two Greens and a single Conservative. Hilariously, one of the Labour wins was a gain of the new Barnard Castle ward which very few people, er, saw coming: Barnard Castle is traditionally the most Conservative town in County Durham, but the Labour candidate Chris Foote-Wood (who is a former Lib Dem council leader in the county, and also the brother of the late and much-missed Victoria Wood) came through the middle of a Conservative/Reform UK split.

Reform UK also convincingly won the only council by-election in this region, in Hartlepool's Throston ward. The only bright spot for Labour was that they held the North Tyneside mayoralty, although only just: the new Labour mayor Karen Clark was elected with just 30% against 29% for Reform UK and 21% for the Conservatives. Clark's previous seat on North Tyneside council has been vacated in consequence, and a by-election in Longbenton and Benton ward will follow in due course.

North West

In a set of local elections where more than half of wards up for election saw a change of party, the field for the coveted Result Which Made My Jaw Drop award is a crowded one. Rather than choose between then, this year I have decided that the award should go collectively to the 53 Reform UK councillors who now make up the majority group on Lancashire county council. The opposition now consists of 8 Conservatives, 7 independent councillors, 5 Labour, 5 Lib Dems, 4 Greens and 2 OWLs - the Our West Lancashire localist group. The presence of the 7 independent councillors indicates that the "Gaza" independent vote came through, not just in Burrnley and Nelson but also in Preston too: the Green Party's seat gain in Accrington West and Oswaldtwistle Central, which had no independent candidate, also owes a lot to that effect. Most of the remaining Conservative councillors represent divisions on the Fylde (all three seats in Lytham St Annes stayed with the party), while three of the five Labour councillors are from Chorley. In a similar effect to that discussed in relation to Barnard Castle above, the only remaining Labour seat in East Lancashire is now Rossendale West - the division which includes perhaps the most affluent part of Rozzendale, Helmshore.

Of the three county council seats Labour were defending in Lancaster, Skerton went to Reform UK and the other two to the Greens who also held a city council by-election in John O'Gaunt ward. Labour were defending three by-elections in Lancashire: Park ward in Fleetwood and Chorley East ward both went to Reform UK, while St Mary's ward in Clitheroe (Ribble Valley) district was regained by the Liberal Democrats who had lost the seat to Labour in a by-election last year. St Mary's was the most fragmented of the 93 by-election results today: shares of the vote were just 25.6% for the winning Liberal Democrat candidate Stephen Sutcliffe, 25.3% for Reform UK, 20.7% for the Conservatives and 19.5% for Labour who were defending the seat. Reform UK also won the second by-election of the year in Colne's Vivary Bridge ward on Pendle council.

Outside the Lancashire county council area, Reform UK gained the Rochdale council by-election in Balderstone and Kirkholt from Labour while Labour held the Great Sankey North and Whittle Hall by-election in Warrington.

But the big overnight story was the extremely narrow Reform UK gain from Labour in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election. RUK's Sarah Pochin defeated Labour's Karen Shore in the final reckoning by 12,645 to 12,639, a majority of six, with both candidates polling 39% on a respectable turnout by by-election standards.

Yorkshire

On the wrong side of the Pennines, four years of cohabitation in Doncaster awaits us. Labour's elected mayor Ros Jones was re-elected with 33% of the vote, against 32% for Reform UK and 26% for the Conservatives; but she will have to work with a council dominated by Reform UK, who won 37 seats against 12 Labour and 6 Conservatives, all the independents and localists having been wiped out. That 37th seat for Reform UK is crucial because it gives the party the two-thirds majority required to block Mayor Jones' budget. The two opposing groups will have to muddle through somehow.

It was another gold-medal place on the podium for the boxer and Reform UK candidate Luke Campbell, who carried both the city of Kingston upon Hull and the countryside of the East Riding to become the first Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Campbell finished with 36% of the vote, against 28% for the Lib Dems, 16% for the Conservatives and 14% for Labour.

East Midlands

Reform UK's other mayoral win came on the far side of the Humber, as Dame Andrea Jenkyns cantered to a big win in the inaugural poll for Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. Jenkyns finished with 42% of the vote against 26% for the Conservative candidate Rob Waltham (who carried only his home borough of North Lincolnshire) and 12% for Labour's Jason Stockwood. She will have at least one colleague on the combined authority (which is made up of council leaders from the area) after Reform UK won an overall majority on Lincolnshire county council: this body now stands at 44 RUK councillors against 14 Conservatives, 5 Lib Dems, 4 independents and 3 Labour. Reform UK also won the Trinity ward by-election in Boston, gaining the seat from the Boston Independents group which runs the local borough council.

A second county council controlled by RUK is Nottinghamshire, where the party swept the north and west of the county. The current composition has 40 seats for Reform UK against 17 Conservatives (whose held up well in Rushcliffe and in Robert Jenrick's Newark constituency), 4 Labour and 3 independents, with the two seats in Mansfield North still to poll after that division's TUSC candidate died during the election campaign. This was the only county council where the Liberal Democrats were wiped out. The 3 independents break down as one for the Broxtowe Alliance (a Labour splinter group which has taken control of Broxtowe council), one for the Broxtowe Independents and just one Ashfield Independent: significantly that's not Jason Zadrozny, who lost his seat to Reform UK. Reform UK gained both council by-elections in Bassetlaw (one from an independent, the other from Labour) while Labour held the by-election in Porchester ward of Gedling council.

Reform UK also have overall control of Derbyshire county council, having swept most of the old coalfield wards in the east of the county. Derbyshire now has 42 Reform UK councillors, 12 Conservatives, just 3 Labour (two in High Peak plus North Belper), 3 Lib Dems (two in Chesterfield plus Matlock), 2 Greens and 2 independents. One of the independents is the former High Peak Labour MP Ruth George, who was easily re-elected in Whaley Bridge after being deselected by Labour. Labour were defending six by-elections in Derbyshire and lost the lot: Brampton East and Boythorpe ward in Chesterfield went to the Lib Dems, Ironville and Riddings in Amber Valley went to an independent, Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook and Horsley (that's one ward) in Amber Valley went to the Conservatives, Cotmanhay ward in Ilkeston went to Reform UK, and two other Erewash wards went to the Conservatives. Of these, only the Chesterfield seat and Cotmanhay had Reform UK candidates.

The one East Midlands council which got away for Reform UK is Leicsetershire, where the party finished three seats short of an overall majority on 25: the Conservatives have 15 councillors, the Lib Dems 11, Labour 2 and the Greens and an independent one each. Some form of Reform UK-led administration looks likely here, but coalition-building will be interesting. Reform UK gained the Glen Parva by-election in Blaby from the Lib Dems, while the Conservatives gained an independent seat on Melton council in Croxton Kerrial ward.

Both Northamptonshire councils have gone from Conservative majorities to Reform UK majorities. In North Northamptonshire things currently stand at 39 RUK councillors against 13 Conservatives, 8 Greens, 4 Labour, an independent and a Lib Dem: this does not include the two seats in Higham Ferrers, where the election had to be postponed after the ward's Lib Dem candidate died just before polling day. This ward will poll at a later date, probably in mid-June. West Northamptonshire has 42 Reform UK councillors (mostly from Northampton), 17 Conservatives, 9 Labour, 6 Lib Dems and 2 independents.

West Midlands

Over in the West Midlands, the residents of Warwickshire will have to wait to see what coalition has been negotiated from a hung council. With 29 seats needed for a majority, Reform UK are now the largest party with 23 seats including all but one seat from North Warwickshire and Nuneaton and Bedworth; the Lib Dems have 14, the Conservatives have fallen to just 9, the Greens have 7, Labour 3 and the Whitnash Residents Association one. Both council by-elections in North Warwickshire (in Arley and Whitacre, and Atherstone Central wards) were gained by Reform UK, with Labour holding New Bilton ward in Rugby and the Lib Dems holding both seats they were defending in Stratford-on-Avon district, Alcester West and Welford-on-Avon.

Worcestershire council is in a similar position to Warwickshire, with Reform UK finishing just two short of an overall majority on 27 seats: against them are 12 Conservatives, 8 Greens, 6 Lib Dems, 2 independents (neither of whom appear to be prepared to back a Reform UK administration) and 2 Labour. The Reform UK caucus includes former Tory MP Alan Amos, who continues his long and winding political career.

There are no such issues in Staffordshire, which has done its usual thing of giving lopsided results - but this time for Reform UK, not the Conservatives. RUK have a large majority here with 49 councillors against 10 Conservatives and 1 seat each for the Greens (Stafford West and Rural), an independent (Stone Urban) and Labour (Burton Trent). Labour lost all three by-elections they were defending, with Curborough ward in Lichfield and Knutton ward in Newcastle-under-Lyme both going to Reform UK; Reform didn't stand in Norton Canes ward in Cannock Chase, where the night's most lopsided by-election result saw the Conservatives defeat Labour 73-27 in a straight fight. (27% would have won some other by-elections this week.) This was an even better Conservative result than in the true-blue Loggerheads ward of Newcastle-under-Lyme, which the Tories held by 70-30 in another straight fight with Labour.

The second-biggest winners of the night overall were the Liberal Democrats, who can celebrate gaining overall control of Shropshire council from the Conservatives after sweeping nearly all of the wards in the North Shropshire constituency, where the Lib Dems had won nothing in May 2021. Shropshire now has 42 Lib Dems councillors against 16 for Reform UK, just 7 Conservatives, 4 Greens, 4 Labour and an independent. journey.

Wales

There was just one poll in Wales, with Reform UK narrowly gaining a by-election to Bridgend council in Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr ward. Vote shares here were 35% for Reform UK, 34% for Labour and 18% for independent candidate Rhys Watkins. This is Reform UK's second by-election in Wales, the first coming in February in the Torfaen ward of Trevethin and Penygarn.

South West

In Gloucestershire the Liberal Democrats had a go at gaining an overall majority but they ended up one seat short on 27 councillors; against them are 11 Reform UK, 9 Greens, just 6 for the formerly-ruling Conservatives, an independent and a Labour councillor. There was a lot of change in Gloucestershire's by-elections: the Conservatives gained Newent and Taynton ward in the Forest of Dean and Tetbury with Upton ward in Cotswold from the Lib Dems, Labour lost Cinderford East in the Forest of Dean to Reform UK and Stroud Central to the Green Party, while the other three by-elections (Charlton Kings ward in Cheltenham, Watermoor ward in Cirencester and Innsworth ward in Tewkesbury district) were held by the Lib Dems.

The West of England mayoralty was in the end held by Labour on an extraordinarily low share of the vote. New Labour candidate Helen Godwin finished on 25%, with Reform UK's Arron Banks second on 22%, Mary Page of the Greens was on 20%, the Conservatives' Steve Smith polled 17% and the Lib Dems' Oli Henman finished fifth on 14% despite topping the poll in Bath and North East Somerset. Banks was the leader in South Gloucestershire, while the Labour majority came out of Bristol.

Wiltshire was one of only a few councils where the Conservatives mostly held off Reform UK, but that wasn't enough to retain the Tory majority or even for the Conservatives to stay in first place. The Lib Dems are now top of a hung council with 43 seats, against 37 Conservatives, 10 Reform UK, 7 independents and 1 Labour councillor. With 50 seats needed for a majority, the independent councillors would appear to hold the balance of power.

Devon is another council which got away for the Lib Dems, who now hold 27 out of 60 seats against 18 for Reform UK, 7 Conservatives, 6 Greens and 2 independents with Labour being wiped out after an appalling performance in their Exeter stronghold. Labour did manage to hold the Topsham by-election in Exeter but they lost the Mincinglake and Whipton by-election in the city to Reform UK; Reform UK also picked up the Teignmouth West by-election to Teignbridge council from the Lib Dems, who gained the latest Tavistock North by-election in West Devon from an independent and held seats in Mid Devon (Clare and Shuttern ward) and North Devon (Barnstaple with Pilton ward).

Serious coalition-building will need to be done in Cornwall, where a fragmented result has left nobody anywhere near the 44 seats required for a council majority. Reform UK are the largest party with 28 councillors, the Lib Dems have 26, there are 16 independent councillors, just 7 Conservatives (who were previously the ruling party), 4 Labour, 3 Greens and 3 seats for Mebyon Kernow. Cornwall wins the award for the lowest winning vote share of the year, with the Lib Dems' Steven Webb finishing in first place in Truro Moresk and Trehaverne ward with just 18.9%: Reform UK and the outgoing Conservative councillor both polled 17%, while the Greens were on 14%, an independent on 13% and Labour on 11%. Incidentally, Chris Green (previously known as Chris Twells of Salford and Cotswold councils), finished in seventh and last place in Truro Boscawen and Redannick. Finally, white smoke is rising from the island of St Martin's, where outgoing Scilly councillor Toby Dougan lost his seat to Geoff White by the resounding margin of 66 votes to 20; with only 120 voters on the roll, St Martin's turnout of 72% may be the highest of any ward this year.

South West

Perhaps the only big piece of good news for the Conservatives in this year's elections came from the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty, where the former Conservative MP for Peterborough Paul Bristow was elected in a gain from Labour. Bristow polled 28% of the vote against 23% for Reform UK's Ryan Coogan and 20% each for Labour candidate Anna Smith and the Lib Dems' Lorna Dupré. There was a lot of variation in the individual districts, with Bristow having a big lead in Peterborough and narrowly carrying Huntingdonshire; Coogan was top in Fenland, Smith had a big lead in Cambridge and Dupré carried both East Cambridgeshire and South Cambridgeshire.

Bristow will have to work with a Liberal Democrat majority on Cambridgeshire county council after the party gained overall control: Cambridgeshire now has 31 Lib Dem councillors against 10 each for the Conservatives and Reform UK, 5 Labour, 3 Greens and 2 independents. The Lib Dem majority was confirmed thanks to an unexpectedly good performance in Cambridge, where the party gained seats from Labour including two city council by-elections in East Chesterton and West Chesterton wards. The Lib Dems also held the crucial Stretham ward by-election, which means that East Cambridgeshire council remains under No Overall Control. Outside the city council area, the Conservatives lost the Barnack ward by-election in Peterborough to an independent candidate.

The Liberal Democrats are now also the largest party on Hertfordshire county council after some years of relative Conservative underperformance finally caught up with them. Hertfordshire now has 31 Lib Dems councillors, 22 Conservatives, 14 Reform UK, 5 Greens, 5 Labour and an independent; with 40 seats needed for a majority, a traffic-light coalition looks like the most likely administration here. There were seven council by-elections in the county with just one seat changing hands: Reform UK gained Braughing and Standon ward from the Conservatives to win their first seat on East Hertfordshire council.

Local by-elections in Essex finished in a 3-3 draw between Reform UK and the Lib Dems, with the latter party holding the three seats they were defending in Chelmsford while Reform UK gained two seats in Ockendon ward of Thurrock (one each from the Conservatives and Labour) and one seat in Mark Hall ward in Harlow (from Labour). In Norfolk Reform UK gained both seats vacated by Liz Truss' conqueror Terry Jermy MP in Thetford, while the Conservative county councillor for Marshland North was successfully re-elected to the council as a Reform UK candidate after defecting to Farage's banner and, in an unusual move, choosing to seek a new mandate from his constituents. Former Naked Attraction contestant Connor Rouse was the winning Liberal Democrat candidate in the Holt by-election to North Norfolk council, gaining his seat from the Conservatives. In Norwich the Green Party held the three by-elections they were defending, while Labour held off Reform UK in the city council's Bowthorpe ward by just one vote, 689 to 688.

London

The two council by-elections taking place in London also included a one-vote Labour win, as Helen Mullis defeated independent candidate Glen Haywood by 835 votes to 834 in the Hainault ward of Redbridge. South of the river, the Lambeth council by-election in Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction ward finished with the Green Party gaining the seat from Labour.

South East

The humiliation for the Conservatives in this cycle was completed in one of the last councils to finalise its result, as the Tories lost control of Buckinghamshire. This was the only county to stay in the Conservative column in 1993, the last county council year where the party performed particularly badly, and the removal of Milton Keynes later in that decade should have meant that Buckinghamshire is even safer for the Conservatives now than it was then. This did not happen: the Tories finished one seat short of a majority on 48, with 27 Lib Dems (who made gains in the Chesham and Amersham constituency), 13 independents (mostly from the Wycombe area), 4 Labour, just 3 Reform UK councillors and 2 Greens.

Neighbouring Oxfordshire now has a Liberal Democrat majority, with 36 councillors against 12 Labour (bizarrely the party's best performance of the night), 10 Conservatives, 7 Greens, 2 independents, 1 Reform UK and 1 councillor from the Henley Residents Association. Seven by-elections in the county saw just one seat change, with the Conservatives gaining Banbury Cross and Neithrop ward (Cherwell council) from Labour; none of the three Cherwell by-elections had Reform UK candidates, and the Conservatives in particular did noticeably well in those polls.

Most of the South East's county councils had their elections postponed, leaving by-elections as the only source of action in those counties. In Hampshire, the Liberal Democrats held two by-elections to the county council but lost a Winchester council by-election to the Greens in Colden Common and Twyford ward. Three by-elections on the Isle of Wight saw Reform UK gain two seats from the Conservatives, in Central Rural and Lake North, while Freshwater South was an independent hold. Two by-elections in Surrey, to the county council in Nork and Tattenhams and to Tandridge council in Oxted South, were held by localist parties. Five by-elections in Sussex resulted in no change, with the Lib Dems holding two seats in Midhurst and two seats in Eastbourne while Labour successfully defended Westbourne and Poet's Corner ward in Brighton and Hove.

Finally we come to Kent county council, which voted like a place in the North or the Midlands and gave an overall majority to Reform UK. Reform UK now have 57 councillors; the Lib Dems are the main opposition with 12, the Conservatives held just 5 of the 62 seats they were defending, and there are also 5 Green and 2 Labour councillors to make up the numbers. In by-elections the Liberal Democrats held two seats in Tunbridge Wells, Labour held their seat in Rosherville ward in Gravesham but lost Snodland East and Ham Hill ward (Tonbridge and Malling council) to the Conservatives; the Conservatives, in their turn, lost Thanet Villages ward in Thanet to Reform UK.

In 2015 Thanet was, of course, the only local council to give an overall majority to Reform UK's predecessor the UK Independence Party. It was not a happy experience for the councillors involved: within three years the ruling UKIP group had disintegrated so badly that the council leadership was taken over by the Conservatives. This was not atypical: large UKIP council groups which did not split were very much the exception. Two years earlier, UKIP had won six seats on Cornwall council; only one of those six councillors finished their four-year term, and UKIP lost every one of the five resulting by-elections.

Reform UK now have overall majorities on ten county or unitary councils, and look likely to lead or be involved in the administration in a few other areas; and they are going to have do this with a group of around 700 political neophytes. Whatever Reform UK council leadership emerges from this will need to overcome their lack of political experience and grasp the huge problems facing the UK's local government very quickly. We can only hope that they are up to the task, otherwise the Commissioners are going to find themselves very busy indeed. But if things do fall apart somewhere badly enough to trigger council resignations, then rest assured that Andrew's Previews will tell the relevant tales as they arise.

In the meantime the work of this column never truly stops, and Andrew’s Previews will be back on Thursday to bring you some polls in Hampshire and Yorkshire. Stay tuned.

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If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them - going back to 2016 - in the Andrew's Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).

Andrew Teale is the Britain Elects Previewer and is webmaster of the Local Elections Archive Project.